TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd44e…67e2backed No79c7,281$5,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.5414456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes10c5,773$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.9415125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes23c5,094$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.9113230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No75c3,929$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.4824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes35c2,549$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.0211050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c2,193$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes44c2,162$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.976540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes33c2,161$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.215029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes45c1,832$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.5613429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No55c1,775$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79212547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes10c1,392$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0910625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c1,351$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.072425%6 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7540…0d08backed Yes52c1,150$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.92634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes48c1,139$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.6314147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No67c905.21$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.5715451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3667…a875backed Yes5c855.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c812.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.285327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c699.6$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9230837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked Yes66c557.03$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.644946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Yes46c547.72$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.432142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes11c541.8$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9212830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4222…8aa7backed No47c540$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.22347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No60c500$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes47c499.97$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9914750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No53c494.81$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.778660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes52c446.37$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes53c429.05$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes3c384.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.558615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.371266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+36.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No44c362.05$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.613622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes50c350.34$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.914839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x813a…acb1backed Yes14c346.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes30c337.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.666913%9 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No56c303.93$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6915855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cff…6051backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes9c293.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4415217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No35c287.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.343560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed No39c257.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.361384.6%11 W · 2 L+5.1wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+89.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes50c217.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.554936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes28c215.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.192853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13014150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52c4…9fabbacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685b…2d04backed No51c194.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.87875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c13…30abbacked No52c188.83$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.852441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes32c185.88$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.765438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No54c180.37$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.772176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+82.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No58c171.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.376650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed No50c159.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.544725.5%12 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No58c151$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.283683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x33de…df3fbacked Yes70c142.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c7…b576backed Yes49c130$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.183540%14 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No56c101.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.753565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484628.3%13 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.954358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0695…4accbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442564%16 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd35…21debacked Yes56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No56c88.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.673756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes14c80.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes62c77.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.065479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c50…3612backed No53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes16c73.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.763452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No28c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f7…b6a3backed No72c69.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.211553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes40c64.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.816450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No30c60.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5520026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6681…73bebacked Yes35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ab…e882backed No53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8bc8backed No60c54.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.93554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+54.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c54.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4939429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0816…377abacked Yes46c51.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c2…12b9backed No28c51.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7c…20a6backed No57c44.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.153161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No58c43.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.112378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No54c40.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.676747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c3…766cbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5514…c221backed No33c35.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.97933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ae…61edbacked No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.482948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97350.7%37 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x648c…150cbacked Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes43c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.911322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fb…a80fbacked No53c29.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.921968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbfe…0845backed No61c29.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes48c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.922445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee1…7fb8backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.675100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x478a…675fbacked No53c24.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.621353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed No56c21.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.354163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1375…14b0backed Yes73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadd3…263fbacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.