TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6dd9…2e04

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NBA, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 62 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-66.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.91
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will England win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$5.83
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$7.65
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$4.34
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.36per pick45cpaid+101.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.15
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$10.32
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.45
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+174.4%+$23.86
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$25.5
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$46.74
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$89.59
James Harden: Points O/U 21.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+118.2%+$23.45
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$7.16
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+94.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ilia Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.