NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02b4c49483f6c6d196608fb1cfec3da463df21c95b7a6775ad04f9a95ebd5051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Rockets, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Rockets | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Clippers | 53c | 4,554$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.59 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rockets | 46c | 4,537$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.22 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed Clippers | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Clippers | 52c | 2,773$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.93 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets | 47c | 2,330$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.02 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…9e70backed Clippers | 45c | 2,228$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Rockets | 53c | 1,980$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.55 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 51c | 1,283$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 47c | 1,206$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.8 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets | 45c | 972.84$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.62 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Clippers | 55c | 967.09$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.19 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Clippers | 51c | 781.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.32 | 440 | 52.5%231 W · 209 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Clippers | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Clippers | 53c | 548.68$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.88 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Clippers | 55c | 546.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.77 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 48c | 469.36$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Rockets | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Clippers | 53c | 400.01$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Clippers | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 48c | 385.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Rockets | 50c | 374.78$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Clippers | 56c | 359.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Clippers | 39c | 289.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 44c | 263.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Clippers | 47c | 252.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets | 65c | 239.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Clippers | 60c | 227.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Clippers | 52c | 217.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Clippers | 60c | 194$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Clippers | 55c | 183.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Clippers | 53c | 160.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Rockets | 45c | 146.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Clippers | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Clippers | 49c | 139.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Clippers | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Clippers | 54c | 133$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Rockets | 34c | 119$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Clippers | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Clippers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Clippers | 53c | 93.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Clippers | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Clippers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Clippers | 46c | 87.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Clippers | 51c | 83.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Clippers | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rockets | 45c | 73.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Rockets | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Clippers | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Clippers | 49c | 60.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Clippers | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Clippers | 49c | 59.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Clippers | 47c | 57.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Clippers | 45c | 54.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rockets | 51c | 49.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Rockets | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Rockets | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Rockets | 47c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Rockets | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…6c2fbacked Clippers | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Rockets | 47c | 39.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Rockets | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Clippers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Clippers | 42c | 37.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Clippers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Rockets | 47c | 30.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…34b7backed Rockets | 66c | 30.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Rockets | 49c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 46c | 28.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rockets | 51c | 27.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Clippers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Clippers | 55c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)this page
- Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Brook Lopez: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Clippers vs. RocketsClippers won
- Clippers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 208.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 209.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 211.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 212.5Under won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.