Us Midterms · resolved market
California redistricting referendum passes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7caa9700c1107c45a9bf02ccd1f3d9dd91aa1539be69a6152a8a96db5e24a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $562,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $656,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $562,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47c…f697backed No | 5c | 60,733$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 17c | 50,900$8,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,657.06 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 17c | 24,933$4,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,351.42 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 74c | 18,306$13,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,716.55 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 27c | 16,500$4,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 12,638$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 79c | 12,445$9,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.49 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked No | 15c | 12,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…545dbacked No | 1c | 9,048$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 7,354$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.55 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 6c | 6,892$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.82 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 2c | 6,625$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…75d7backed No | 3c | 5,719$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 72c | 4,605$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.46 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…c1b4backed No | 2c | 4,471$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 14c | 4,050$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed No | 15c | 3,593$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c09…ebfabacked No | 1c | 3,591$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 73c | 3,155$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x035e…b0b7backed No | 0c | 3,011$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cd94backed No | 1c | 2,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,805$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked No | 2c | 1,671$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…273fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,671$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 8c | 1,650$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 12c | 1,549$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 1,529$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 3c | 1,515$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6d…d787backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 14c | 1,442$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…e681backed No | 15c | 1,330$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 5c | 1,008$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 15c | 1,001$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 11c | 999.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…eec9backed No | 1c | 857.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 29c | 850$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…9d33backed No | 4c | 827$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 13c | 747.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 3c | 624.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 23c | 575.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…570dbacked No | 5c | 550.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…43d3backed No | 2c | 505.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 468.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…1a3bbacked No | 4c | 432$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 15c | 425$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 4c | 424.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 69c | 416.59$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…c633backed No | 4c | 410$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…2523backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…689abacked No | 4c | 378$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed No | 6c | 247.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 234.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 14c | 165.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 70c | 163$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 145.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894c…5e2ebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…af39backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 112.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…e5b6backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…32fbbacked No | 13c | 84.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 34c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked No | 33c | 43.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…5a31backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…9e43backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.