TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netsof Nets, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,570,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,678,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,570,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 759 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets23c217,237$49,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,121.887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets22c145,345$31,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,369.2851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked 76ers77c120,000$92,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,249.9812147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed 76ers78c80,000$62,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,40026753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Nets20c70,000$14,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,699.7237539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Nets22c60,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,80038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed 76ers37c58,216$21,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,564.9317441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets51c55,189$28,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,776.825,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed 76ers19c53,352$9,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,883.4525925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers78c52,013$40,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,712.522,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nets46c34,965$15,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,049.5848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed 76ers77c34,612$26,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,820.892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed 76ers61c32,821$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Nets24c31,250$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,7501947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed 76ers79c25,000$19,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,7507946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers78c22,000$17,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,109.914,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Nets22c21,682$4,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,894.5114853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Nets39c21,543$8,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,233.2844654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked 76ers78c20,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,599.8213248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers65c18,844$12,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,155.11,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Nets60c17,802$10,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,120.859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers77c16,273$12,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,554.979,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 76ers49c16,117$7,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,963.271,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nets50c15,304$7,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,609.2896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked 76ers78c15,119$11,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,745.530947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed 76ers76c15,020$11,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,415.219048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 76ers78c15,000$11,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,7001,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed 76ers78c12,587$9,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,837.5835450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed 76ers74c10,500$7,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,763.2726637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 76ers26c10,260$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.31,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Nets23c10,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,70018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets23c10,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,699.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed 76ers0c9,900$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.621923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Nets75c9,664$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.9927917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed 76ers44c9,410$4,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.262646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef5…ae68backed 76ers45c8,852$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+100.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed 76ers78c8,700$6,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,785.997468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed 76ers53c8,128$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,305.585046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked 76ers78c8,077$6,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,336.6944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked 76ers78c8,000$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,24018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets44c7,690$3,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.541,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 76ers36c7,644$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.822,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Nets21c7,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,924.8847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc374…46f4backed Nets22c7,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,460922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked 76ers78c7,000$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+65.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed 76ers77c6,828$5,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,257.883154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed 76ers78c6,787$5,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,293.5448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 76ers78c6,666$5,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,169.412,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed 76ers79c6,329$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00027443.1%118 W · 156 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nets22c6,050$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7191,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers77c5,777$4,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,437.593,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets21c5,555$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,388.4136741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets60c5,407$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.152,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed 76ers78c5,334$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,160.1371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Nets23c5,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Nets79c4,998$3,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.19944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7d…f24abacked 76ers79c4,490$3,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,547425%1 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick76cpaid-68.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 76ers71c4,487$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,185.5434456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Nets24c4,452$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,363.087149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed 76ers1c4,444$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.441,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed 76ers2c4,348$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 76ers56c4,172$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.9373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers50c4,157$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.854,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed 76ers78c4,122$3,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,221.3917141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nets22c4,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,139.8235235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers78c3,908$3,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.52,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Nets26c3,848$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,835.7134227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Nets22c3,625$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.4624831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 76ers76c3,606$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.71,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 76ers7c3,578$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.71,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed 76ers77c3,500$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Nets30c3,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.3350347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Nets40c3,231$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.6448845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed 76ers77c3,202$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.561675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed 76ers78c3,005$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.861,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nets46c2,961$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.1885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed 76ers78c2,820$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.550653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561a…8e0bbacked 76ers78c2,790$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.22263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Nets23c2,609$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.79849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Nets23c2,500$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nets23c2,500$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9251,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Nets65c2,428$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.8843051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed3…fc81backed 76ers77c2,375$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed 76ers78c2,339$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.5327547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5a…b315backed 76ers74c2,279$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.914146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nets22c2,206$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.181,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Nets23c2,135$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.7816130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Nets22c2,023$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.0621538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6aa…93f8backed 76ers1c2,004$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206618.2%12 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed 76ers79c2,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5803966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed 76ers1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204200.7%3 W · 417 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked 76ers2c1,998$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.978783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed 76ers76c1,954$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked 76ers79c1,920$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.819149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Nets21c1,900$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50124048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 76ers78c1,851$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked 76ers77c1,846$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.4562652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Nets22c1,818$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.1846632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Nets32c1,745$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.19843.9%43 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0140…f773backed Nets23c1,737$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.265433.3%18 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+57%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.