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Tweets · resolved market

Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,611 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x860d…6071backed Yes31c2,169$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.9625232.5%82 W · 170 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes28c1,150$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.1852328.3%148 W · 375 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes5c868.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1844019.1%84 W · 356 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes20c811.52$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.351,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No65c727.03$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.911710.3%12 W · 105 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes18c711.38$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0847023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes10c516.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.354619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes31c489.82$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9114231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c446.97$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1940748.4%197 W · 210 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c385.17$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1429548.1%142 W · 153 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No66c363.45$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7810155.4%56 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x732e…0b35backed Yes23c290.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.862642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No61c273$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4723260.3%140 W · 92 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes23c256.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2833541.8%140 W · 195 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No71c251.06$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2212837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c232.52$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4832055%176 W · 144 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No71c229.07$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.533751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No72c221.76$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3335470.6%250 W · 104 L+24.7wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6df…65b1backed Yes6c200.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.571118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-69.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.542820.8%89 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608811.4%10 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes37c199.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512029.2%35 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c177$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4378121.8%170 W · 611 L-3.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd069…d078backed No75c160.94$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.951070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes40c159.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.42767.2%20 W · 256 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+81.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c145$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.819458.8%114 W · 80 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No67c144$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.524146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c128$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No71c126.42$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0612032.5%39 W · 81 L-11.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-39.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes14c125.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.614715.6%23 W · 124 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c111.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.277964.6%51 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No66c110$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3711354%61 W · 52 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No68c107.23$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.313447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes34c106.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0133343.2%144 W · 189 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+11.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5040…96cfbacked Yes31c105$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.551233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes36c103.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376432.8%21 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No71c100.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8212951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333259.4%19 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No54c99.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.553863.2%24 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8482435.8%295 W · 529 L-38.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…33a2backed Yes43c93.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick43cpaid-79.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No57c90$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6415952.8%84 W · 75 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c87.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7221348.4%103 W · 110 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No68c87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.848944.9%40 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No69c86.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.53141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked No72c85.91$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0318757.8%108 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44734%16 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes28c79.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2613745.3%62 W · 75 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c73.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0922557.8%130 W · 95 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes26c71.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8411838.1%45 W · 73 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.325655.9%143 W · 113 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No53c69.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5964239.1%251 W · 391 L+48.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No68c67.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5312144.6%54 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No55c67.02$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0218750.3%94 W · 93 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No67c61.19$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9112638.1%48 W · 78 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No75c61.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2718444%81 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59cc…2963backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4609…2951backed Yes35c56.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes29c52.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1912532.8%41 W · 84 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb502…1d11backed Yes29c51.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb4…76e9backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked No66c44.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1225828.3%73 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6421557.2%123 W · 92 L+1.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.643627.5%120 W · 316 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1411346.9%53 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.94544.4%20 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfed9…6510backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202556%14 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83f4…c2a8backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc833…eec3backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffcd…1666backed No68c36.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.53580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2184…d271backed No68c35.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ce…4904backed No69c33.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.46785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+42.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…7e8ebacked Yes44c33.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No57c29.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.591957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No76c25.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.041668.8%11 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick76cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No79c20.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.222025%5 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.85160.8%31 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.25151%26 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0657…2b79backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…47a2backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…e434backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d4e…7c1abacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06f…90acbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd99c…8490backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8143…5f93backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed5…4ea8backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a68…1e7abacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6118…d31dbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b5…1b11backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9882…1d24backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0407…bcfdbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9293…8f2ebacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.