Tweets · resolved market
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e0354642e5840c4f9104d475ac60e1316d286088846f282605babd97c1d5d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 58c | 4,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.52 | 258 | 28.3%73 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 17c | 804.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 62c | 790.41$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.44 | 523 | 28.3%148 W · 375 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 47c | 746.09$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.55 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 690.85$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.16 | 117 | 10.3%12 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 652.81$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 26c | 497.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 450$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 444.29$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.39 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 57c | 393.21$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 333 | 43.2%144 W · 189 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 54c | 380.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.65 | 252 | 32.5%82 W · 170 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 53c | 328.75$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.25 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 39c | 287$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed No | 37c | 271.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 257.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 295 | 48.1%142 W · 153 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 227.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 320 | 55%176 W · 144 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 225.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 88 | 11.4%10 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 44c | 195$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 177$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 781 | 21.8%170 W · 611 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 39c | 175.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 46c | 169.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 428 | 20.8%89 W · 339 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 53c | 166.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 135.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 135$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 162 | 64.8%105 W · 57 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked No | 43c | 132$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 9c | 130.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…08edbacked No | 68c | 124.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 58c | 121.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 354 | 70.6%250 W · 104 L | +24.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 40c | 120.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…dc0dbacked Yes | 50c | 113.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 108.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 46c | 108.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 276 | 7.2%20 W · 256 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 52c | 99.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed No | 50c | 99.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 90.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 90.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 77c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 87.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 82.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa272…2625backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 19c | 73.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 37c | 70.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 66.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 66.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 58.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 58.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…6105backed No | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 54.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -11.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 256 | 55.9%143 W · 113 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 54c | 42.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…e856backed No | 34c | 41.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 74c | 41.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 215 | 57.2%123 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 27c | 39.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?this page
- Will White House post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.