Fifa International · resolved market
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de97e3744f1f62dd467d9e8efb5cae4f4b6353567df43fda268c18de95bd131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 9,341$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.82 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 13c | 1,487$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 1,366$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.42 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 19c | 1,250$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Over | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 80c | 996.33$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Over | 17c | 554.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 6c | 542.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 9c | 534.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Over | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 7c | 488.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 451.12$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 18c | 392.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 19c | 295.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 18c | 237$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…dd03backed Over | 20c | 193.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked Over | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 6c | 161.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Over | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Over | 20c | 124.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 483 | 28%135 W · 348 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Under | 79c | 88.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 277 | 67.9%188 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…6766backed Over | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…60c6backed Over | 20c | 74.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…3c86backed Over | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 18c | 63.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 19c | 57.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,313 | 48.9%642 W · 671 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…79c7backed Over | 24c | 52.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…e485backed Under | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 194 | 50.5%98 W · 96 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 29c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 264 | 49.2%130 W · 134 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 76c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 209 | 68.4%143 W · 66 L | +21.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…ebe7backed Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 2.5this page
- Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Ghana won
- Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Ghana won
- Spread: Croatia (-3.5)Ghana won
- Spread: Croatia (-4.5)Ghana won
- Spread: Ghana (-1.5)Croatia won
- Spread: Ghana (-2.5)Croatia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.