TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, Seattle Storm
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,385 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1852…cb4ebacked Seattle Storm21c31,367$6,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,679.152817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Seattle Storm24c20,581$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992.479318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Storm4c16,812$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.8326147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries77c14,877$11,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.181,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Golden State Valkyries79c11,577$9,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.5540550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Golden State Valkyries79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1004766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Storm1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Seattle Storm26c9,055$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,378.0536750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Seattle Storm21c8,990$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.08119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked Seattle Storm18c8,559$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Seattle Storm17c7,670$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.3110634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Seattle Storm4c6,350$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Seattle Storm16c5,773$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.5916633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2398…8894backed Golden State Valkyries78c5,601$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.711050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden State Valkyries79c5,002$3,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.3650952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Seattle Storm2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Seattle Storm14c4,766$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67719031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Seattle Storm5c4,625$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.471741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden State Valkyries79c4,346$3,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.9383748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Seattle Storm4c3,930$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Golden State Valkyries76c2,722$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.5919458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Seattle Storm16c2,628$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.563528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Golden State Valkyries80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries75c2,391$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.451,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm21c2,236$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.5778548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Seattle Storm29c2,166$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2812144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Seattle Storm1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Seattle Storm24c1,960$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.223030%9 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Seattle Storm21c1,957$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8717946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Storm5c1,944$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.714936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Golden State Valkyries78c1,904$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.6732049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Seattle Storm9c1,654$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.769129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Golden State Valkyries75c1,617$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.1121446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Seattle Storm3c1,600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Seattle Storm21c1,501$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7331448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Golden State Valkyries79c1,480$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.4989349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa01a…3aeebacked Seattle Storm35c1,415$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.19955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Storm14c1,404$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2419428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Seattle Storm3c1,375$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Seattle Storm22c1,364$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Seattle Storm20c1,328$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.5613950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cbb…8a37backed Seattle Storm21c1,321$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Golden State Valkyries76c1,305$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.0337850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Seattle Storm20c1,062$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.036851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Seattle Storm2c1,050$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2190%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden State Valkyries72c1,034$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6734726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Golden State Valkyries79c1,027$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6292248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Seattle Storm5c1,020$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.223234.5%80 W · 152 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce37…a2d6backed Seattle Storm14c999.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked Golden State Valkyries80c979.43$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.092060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Seattle Storm20c957.26$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.459139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Golden State Valkyries75c947.29$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.825538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Seattle Storm19c916.66$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.765431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2981…698fbacked Seattle Storm22c849.98$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f30…eeb6backed Seattle Storm25c809.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Seattle Storm6c777.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7712216.4%20 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Golden State Valkyries80c772$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.436154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Seattle Storm16c768.12$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Seattle Storm9c728.84$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Golden State Valkyries79c723$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8341145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x210a…1080backed Golden State Valkyries67c720$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc174…66f2backed Golden State Valkyries79c707.75$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.42977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm27c680.46$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3950646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4b…1f22backed Seattle Storm22c678.63$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.031127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd886…c006backed Golden State Valkyries77c615.74$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.621080%8 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa81c…3d28backed Seattle Storm23c597.1$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Golden State Valkyries75c557.25$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3114942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…6e68backed Seattle Storm2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Seattle Storm22c458.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Golden State Valkyries58c457.05$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.9612045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Golden State Valkyries79c443.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.046055%33 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ba…1259backed Seattle Storm24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Storm25c415.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1230347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Seattle Storm19c410.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5218746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5184…d17abacked Golden State Valkyries74c407.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.742378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Seattle Storm5c407$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3825246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…cc19backed Seattle Storm18c399.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Golden State Valkyries64c371.94$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.914947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Golden State Valkyries76c351.67$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.674365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Storm26c350.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1785158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Seattle Storm4c340.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.639743.3%42 W · 55 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Storm27c322.2$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.393053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Seattle Storm12c320.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.459251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Golden State Valkyries63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.462334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b6…886ebacked Golden State Valkyries80c312.5$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…1cc3backed Golden State Valkyries66c301$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.341747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Seattle Storm21c300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.82853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Seattle Storm18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7613024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4027…30b9backed Seattle Storm21c295.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.972339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed Seattle Storm11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Golden State Valkyries80c271.81$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3623245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Seattle Storm23c261.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013422.4%30 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x520d…e474backed Golden State Valkyries77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.742875%21 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1f…da75backed Seattle Storm14c257.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Golden State Valkyries62c256.59$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5910237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Golden State Valkyries79c253.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.292777.8%21 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Golden State Valkyries80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5022967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x943b…e35ebacked Seattle Storm10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x886f…aa8fbacked Seattle Storm21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Golden State Valkyries75c237.11$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.285364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.