NFL · resolved market
Will Deshaun Watson be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2d0c875227de9dcdb62f0ea47510c8588050012dc8169a8060cab980d8f3675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x533c…2658backed No | 61c | 24,606$15,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,082.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 17,370$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 39c | 6,028$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,677.61 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 57c | 2,829$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.4 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 15c | 2,194$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 28c | 1,475$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 5c | 1,328$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 1,246$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 34c | 878.24$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 663.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…d644backed Yes | 61c | 563.64$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 547.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 521.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…10dfbacked Yes | 44c | 507.3$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 467.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 454.13$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 45c | 431.11$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 388.56$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 372.78$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 55c | 349$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 34c | 346.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 7c | 327$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 325$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 39c | 301.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.2 | 284 | 51.8%147 W · 137 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 299$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 293.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 288.56$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 44c | 285$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 272.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 270.77$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 263.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 234.96$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 229.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 224.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 219.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 55c | 201.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 50c | 191$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…bff8backed Yes | 72c | 189.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 39c | 166.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 18c | 163.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 46c | 155.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 146.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 134$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed No | 56c | 129.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 27c | 120.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 20c | 109.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 66c | 94.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 38c | 90.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…e21ebacked No | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 31c | 84.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 83.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 23c | 59.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 24c | 53.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 57c | 51.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 34c | 51.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 51c | 40.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 57c | 30.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…2a80backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deshaun Watson be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?this page
- Will Dillon Gabriel be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?No won
- Will Taylor Green be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.