NFL · resolved market
Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a889ebbdf34f7ddc218b00b062f5e10433b29a35e56090928aa9e2daaa4d9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x533c…2658backed Yes | 59c | 52,111$30,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,837.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 37c | 11,153$4,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,001.54 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 6c | 10,013$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.93 | 280 | 35%98 W · 182 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 35c | 1,528$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.88 | 284 | 51.8%147 W · 137 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,498$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 568 | 9.9%56 W · 512 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 1,356$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 1,068$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 32c | 1,067$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 51c | 811.54$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 803.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 798.05$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 58c | 780.62$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 45c | 697.68$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.81 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 634.28$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 547.79$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.39 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 519.1$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 452.44$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 440.68$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Yes | 55c | 435.64$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 52c | 403.11$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 391.46$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 23c | 375$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 43c | 363.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 338.52$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 50c | 284.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 278.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 256.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 251.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 48c | 233.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 232.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 225.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 223$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 42c | 199.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 197.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 29c | 191.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 190.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 189.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 164.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 148.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked No | 72c | 139.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 20c | 122.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Yes | 48c | 105.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…2410backed No | 36c | 100.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 97.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 45c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 90.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad54…006abacked No | 73c | 80.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 64c | 70.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 50c | 65.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…c63cbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…e17cbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 64c | 51.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 21c | 48.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 35c | 46.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c9…1ef1backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 60c | 38.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…9300backed Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…9fe2backed Yes | 68c | 35.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 79c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 315 | 40%126 W · 189 L | -15.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 74c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?this page
- Will Deshaun Watson be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?Yes won
- Will Dillon Gabriel be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?No won
- Will Taylor Green be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.