Fifa International · resolved market
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42789540f49feeebf0dd06507b6f8c869471f07600ad829e37f12a4c894c819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.19 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,464$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.32 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 39c | 1,445$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.54 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 39c | 1,122$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.56 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 65c | 1,028$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 152 | 61.2%93 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 598.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 35c | 580.24$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 481.07$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 47c | 440.31$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 39c | 348.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…9815backed Yes | 78c | 347.51$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…82d7backed No | 11c | 223.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 216$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387d…1d28backed Yes | 53c | 189.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 62c | 189$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed No | 42c | 186.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 15c | 170.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.37 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 26c | 146.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 122.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 27c | 119.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 113.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 88.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No | 49c | 87.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 81.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 70c | 77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 62c | 66.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…4199backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 64c | 61.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 24c | 46.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 39c | 43.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ce…0176backed Yes | 50c | 42.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9cb9backed Yes | 75c | 38.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 30.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 41c | 30.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…18b1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…b3e1backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 61c | 26.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 46c | 25.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…b172backed Yes | 68c | 22.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…cf1bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 74c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Argentina finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Jordan finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.