TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$321,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6820…1c19backed Seattle Storm22c106,885$23,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,074.783455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx78c14,311$11,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,188.371,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Seattle Storm20c12,269$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.8227449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx79c11,860$9,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.689349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57fa…dda8backed Seattle Storm20c11,254$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Lynx80c11,190$8,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.6940550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Minnesota Lynx80c8,538$6,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.545657.1%32 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Seattle Storm17c8,133$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.2115741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Lynx79c8,024$6,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.7583748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Storm12c7,964$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.7174942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Minnesota Lynx80c7,600$6,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Seattle Storm20c7,272$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.356549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Minnesota Lynx78c7,265$5,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.014967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Seattle Storm8c5,861$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.548228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Minnesota Lynx77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1505558.2%32 W · 23 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Lynx80c3,829$3,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.750952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3099…3896backed Seattle Storm25c3,606$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Seattle Storm4c3,454$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.989036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Minnesota Lynx79c3,393$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.8341145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Seattle Storm19c2,748$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.555541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Minnesota Lynx71c2,536$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.1311250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf953…156cbacked Minnesota Lynx80c2,321$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff6…3f44backed Minnesota Lynx80c2,294$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Minnesota Lynx78c2,268$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.6341147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb3e3…5febbacked Minnesota Lynx80c2,204$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Seattle Storm14c2,196$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ad…211bbacked Minnesota Lynx80c2,041$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Lynx78c2,001$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.278548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…4633backed Seattle Storm26c1,903$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb6…8b20backed Seattle Storm14c1,778$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx78c1,771$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.0399548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Seattle Storm14c1,689$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.587740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Lynx78c1,601$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1446247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Lynx78c1,532$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.9719446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Minnesota Lynx78c1,481$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.8238650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7f…7b8abacked Minnesota Lynx73c1,351$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Seattle Storm15c1,342$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3410634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9be…08bebacked Seattle Storm23c1,329$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3169…f6d4backed Minnesota Lynx80c1,229$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc71…39dabacked Minnesota Lynx80c1,165$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Storm14c1,118$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6319428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Storm12c1,089$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Minnesota Lynx78c1,050$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.59650%48 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Minnesota Lynx79c1,013$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Storm27c1,011$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.1532049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Seattle Storm13c1,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1232540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Seattle Storm20c982.2$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.853030%9 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd72d…0dbbbacked Seattle Storm23c913.04$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Seattle Storm19c848.39$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5436750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e03…3f5fbacked Seattle Storm12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Seattle Storm30c821.19$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Minnesota Lynx80c803.77$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.33941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Seattle Storm12c794.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6615654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx79c768$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7292248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Minnesota Lynx79c698.92$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.215048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d32…ae18backed Minnesota Lynx72c692.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.821070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Seattle Storm13c680.14$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.42825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Seattle Storm26c660.65$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7714942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed Seattle Storm23c652.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Seattle Storm10c624.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Seattle Storm11c603.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.95949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Seattle Storm23c603.21$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.021650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb750…67efbacked Seattle Storm9c580$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Seattle Storm20c574$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9913147.3%62 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dd5abacked Minnesota Lynx73c558.18$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.661080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+87.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Seattle Storm14c557.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7890%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Seattle Storm19c555$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.458733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Seattle Storm20c552$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0230734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Seattle Storm3c550$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Minnesota Lynx72c523.43$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Seattle Storm16c518$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4119031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Seattle Storm20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Minnesota Lynx78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Seattle Storm19c440.26$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0610445.2%47 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x667f…ccbebacked Seattle Storm7c406.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Minnesota Lynx78c400.69$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.151464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Seattle Storm30c388.45$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.546437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Minnesota Lynx77c366$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.494667.4%31 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Minnesota Lynx78c358.72$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.41855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8f…14d1backed Seattle Storm28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Seattle Storm23c350.45$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.496643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Seattle Storm17c349.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7616633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Seattle Storm19c326$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.749938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Storm3c325.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3126147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Lynx79c324$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0822446%103 W · 121 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Seattle Storm14c313.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8819458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Seattle Storm20c312.49$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52568%17 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Seattle Storm10c300.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Seattle Storm27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf65f…134ebacked Seattle Storm8c295.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.67728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+213.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd238…ee03backed Seattle Storm20c272.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.599336.6%34 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Storm30c263.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1832150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf76d…4052backed Minnesota Lynx78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd765…f8ddbacked Minnesota Lynx80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17bb…e889backed Minnesota Lynx80c245.48$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Seattle Storm13c244$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.987360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Minnesota Lynx73c242.58$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.43977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Seattle Storm15c235.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.461526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Seattle Storm15c210.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5910538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed Seattle Storm23c209.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.33240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.