TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xca60…310d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Serie A at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+55.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+506.1%+$83.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.3
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+510.1%+$83.65
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.25
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+270.9%+$36.55
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+264.2%+$72.55
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.96
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+344.4%+$77.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.45
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+780.8%+$115.24
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.31
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+199.3%+$113.2
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+66.7%+$22.34
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+58.7%+$28.24
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.93
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$97.02
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$36.82
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.54
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$107.97
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+61.3%+$25.86
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+270.4%+$34.37
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+56%+$80.77
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30.28
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+118.6%+$74.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+78.6%+$14.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.