TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Suns, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,895,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,163,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,895,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Suns55c168,466$92,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,656.572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Suns27c119,365$32,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,615.466043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Suns54c110,209$59,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,215.198750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lakers45c107,444$48,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,094.4436549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Suns55c91,660$50,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,319.0649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers72c83,332$59,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,467.51,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers48c83,001$39,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,454.072,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Suns25c76,438$19,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,100.98035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…d35fbacked Suns35c73,418$25,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,696.342035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Suns60c57,007$33,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,925.6132540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6233…6349backed Lakers73c54,005$39,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,618.283467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Suns0c47,401$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4434136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns31c40,321$12,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,686.322,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d7b…a772backed Suns1c37,008$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lakers70c36,427$25,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,076.091,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers69c35,537$24,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,089.1366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Lakers75c32,028$24,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,888.665064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Suns3c31,784$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.663179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Suns55c29,829$16,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,405.774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Suns36c29,379$10,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,602.8111335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Lakers45c24,325$10,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,390.19745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Suns24c23,563$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Lakers39c22,276$8,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,545.578350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Lakers44c20,364$9,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,358.2721350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Lakers45c20,307$9,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,168.8510949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Suns21c20,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2009018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Lakers73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,40040133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cba…3516backed Lakers53c18,704$10,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,698.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Suns26c17,816$4,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,634.643641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Lakers60c17,104$10,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,876.0820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Suns28c16,888$4,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,661.717247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns55c16,000$8,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,759.864,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Suns26c15,939$4,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,144.2548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Suns45c15,902$7,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,158.6210743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce6…e378backed Suns4c15,338$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.492722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Suns56c15,051$8,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,428.3416942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Lakers45c14,961$6,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,228.379060%54 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Suns1c14,192$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0167911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Lakers34c13,958$4,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,154.8512529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aab…c4ddbacked Lakers75c13,532$10,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,342.527839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Suns39c13,100$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100.461,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938f…a768backed Lakers65c13,000$8,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,549.992650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41a…fd60backed Lakers45c12,734$5,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,003.873148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Lakers45c10,744$4,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,909.444845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Suns48c10,636$5,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,128.2135650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Suns30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…6729backed Lakers43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.981376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+51.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d6a…1c08backed Suns56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.91942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Lakers59c9,896$5,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,043.024658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Suns0c9,402$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2138434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Lakers52c9,399$4,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,544.4642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Suns57c8,546$4,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8717243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Lakers44c8,017$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,489.775567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Lakers68c8,000$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,56014243%61 W · 81 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lakers74c7,942$5,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.231,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Suns57c7,794$4,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,442.351,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Lakers45c7,754$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,268.7512042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns0c7,706$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns27c7,633$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.912,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Suns67c7,537$5,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,029.622,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Lakers65c7,531$4,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.7714766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e94…7f1ebacked Lakers45c7,178$3,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,924.977742.9%33 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Lakers73c7,147$5,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.1989444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Lakers45c7,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85058951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Suns56c6,523$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.958763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Suns11c6,009$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Suns57c5,461$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.0539265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Suns11c5,310$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.3336023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a68…7b56backed Lakers56c5,190$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.728055%44 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Lakers44c5,015$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.565246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Lakers79c5,005$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.084671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Suns25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25035444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Suns56c4,866$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.1141954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Lakers45c4,835$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.2572241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Lakers41c4,772$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.5122035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Lakers73c4,675$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.818941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Suns55c4,595$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,548.1943438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Suns38c4,366$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.9625226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Suns2c4,234$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.111258%10 W · 115 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…4dc5backed Suns27c4,030$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc025…c169backed Lakers68c4,000$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2702254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Suns57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2801040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Suns55c4,000$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21565939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Suns34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.9678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns55c3,924$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Lakers45c3,890$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.963663.9%23 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+38%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb70…6c66backed Lakers33c3,854$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Suns46c3,810$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.5813544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Lakers38c3,809$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.4937448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Suns3c3,799$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0611548.7%56 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Lakers55c3,718$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.2112756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd25…7d10backed Lakers45c3,694$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.67642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Suns55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.751553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Lakers68c3,611$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.419443.3%84 W · 110 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Suns34c3,532$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.655,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Suns55c3,500$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94023742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Lakers44c3,450$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,93231455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Lakers67c3,414$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.4224937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…9a1fbacked Lakers40c3,370$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.82352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.