Fifa International · resolved market
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391cf16e6b24fa44d91a0a53db42e5dfc47e425f17fdf2d92e29f0c9dba851b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 8,217$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.44 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 20c | 2,447$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.83 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…020dbacked Over | 5c | 1,973$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 594 | 53.4%317 W · 277 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Over | 5c | 959.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…fb09backed Under | 48c | 835.13$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.27 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 25c | 829.94$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.88 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…c82bbacked Over | 17c | 822.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 7c | 499.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 479.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…d6f3backed Over | 16c | 274.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…c624backed Over | 31c | 202.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…0ef3backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 163.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…c7b8backed Over | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…7d5bbacked Over | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 14c | 143.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Over | 37c | 136.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Over | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 477 | 44.2%211 W · 266 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…9bfebacked Over | 27c | 109.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 64c | 104.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Over | 28c | 89.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Over | 17c | 87.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…3122backed Over | 25c | 60.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c99fbacked Over | 23c | 55.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…dcaabacked Over | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…e14dbacked Over | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 414 | 44.9%186 W · 228 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…7d44backed Under | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 78c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 782 | 34.3%268 W · 514 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5this page
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5Under won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5Under won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)New Zealand won
- Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)New Zealand won
- Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)IR Iran won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.