Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef7e8660541d07039dbdc55feea0d828685f999c81f4b4206cbb9f49b2082ee3

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New Zealandof IR Iran, New Zealand
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $177,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $175,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,318 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x59f4…c1f1backed IR Iran	12c	12,881$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	81	35.8%29 W · 52 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x535e…3cb6backed IR Iran	11c	11,214$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,285.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked IR Iran	11c	8,753$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$961.79	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed IR Iran	7c	8,091$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.77	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed IR Iran	11c	6,672$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.92	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed IR Iran	11c	5,893$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.06	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed IR Iran	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	354	46%163 W · 191 L	+7.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed IR Iran	6c	2,754$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.86	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed IR Iran	11c	2,054$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.94	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed IR Iran	11c	2,008$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.88	142	26.8%38 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed IR Iran	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	385	26.8%103 W · 282 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed IR Iran	8c	1,918$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.75	108	36.1%39 W · 69 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed IR Iran	4c	1,819$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.05	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4871…0742backed IR Iran	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	111	47.7%53 W · 58 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked IR Iran	10c	1,479$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.61	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae76…2763backed IR Iran	11c	1,364$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	186	26.3%49 W · 137 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed IR Iran	3c	1,207$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa9…9a60backed IR Iran	11c	1,182$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked IR Iran	6c	1,079$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+6.2wins	+0.20per pick	32cpaid	+92.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked IR Iran	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	170	30%51 W · 119 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb876…d9c3backed IR Iran	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed IR Iran	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	185	44.9%83 W · 102 L	+9.2wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1982…5ed8backed IR Iran	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked IR Iran	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	267	16.1%43 W · 224 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d5…1cbbbacked IR Iran	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	107	26.2%28 W · 79 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c41…eeb9backed IR Iran	11c	810.91$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.2	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	+6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x425b…dbfdbacked IR Iran	11c	785.64$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.42	68	36.8%25 W · 43 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed IR Iran	13c	749.69$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.46	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed IR Iran	10c	726.93$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.69	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4500…115dbacked IR Iran	2c	538.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf67…6842backed IR Iran	4c	526.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	106	28.3%30 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…4a74backed IR Iran	11c	518.18$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfd…a57ebacked IR Iran	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed IR Iran	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	128	15.6%20 W · 108 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed IR Iran	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	124	41.9%52 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8a…2d3cbacked IR Iran	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	262	16%42 W · 220 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+35%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked IR Iran	6c	434.53$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.93	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed IR Iran	3c	430.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	432	30.1%130 W · 302 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed IR Iran	12c	389.97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.73	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e50…0d32backed IR Iran	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	109	34.9%38 W · 71 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed IR Iran	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	124	37.1%46 W · 78 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked IR Iran	4c	288$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	575	41.7%240 W · 335 L	-20.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5ac…b255backed IR Iran	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed IR Iran	10c	266$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca4…8bfcbacked IR Iran	11c	250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked IR Iran	5c	239.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	586	42.8%251 W · 335 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb2…02b0backed IR Iran	11c	215.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	365	34.2%125 W · 240 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe059…daaebacked IR Iran	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	117	20.5%24 W · 93 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe32d…1d8abacked IR Iran	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed IR Iran	10c	198.63$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed IR Iran	11c	184.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	295	29.8%88 W · 207 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed IR Iran	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5a…9d75backed IR Iran	9c	175.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2484…7780backed IR Iran	11c	174.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1e…0a03backed IR Iran	6c	156.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	72	2.8%2 W · 70 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	9cpaid	-96.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x455f…a6c0backed IR Iran	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed IR Iran	11c	142$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc214…6a42backed IR Iran	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	94	41.5%39 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0e…c7a6backed IR Iran	11c	118.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed IR Iran	10c	114.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	477	44.2%211 W · 266 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3771…54b3backed IR Iran	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	15cpaid	+152.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9f67backed IR Iran	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+5.4wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed IR Iran	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked IR Iran	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed IR Iran	11c	98.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed New Zealand	79c	23$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.83	379	50.1%190 W · 189 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)this page
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)New Zealand won
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)IR Iran won
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)IR Iran won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event