Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075a9c8ca23630609d934513d9b95ca039004214267a366d501e3134b0bd5daf

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: IR Iranof New Zealand, IR Iran
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $145,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $149,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,390 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16c7…3931backed New Zealand	21c	10,000$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed New Zealand	10c	7,801$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.87	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New Zealand	6c	4,186$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.18	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked New Zealand	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	250	19.6%49 W · 201 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New Zealand	15c	3,691$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.54	1,144	39.2%448 W · 696 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed New Zealand	6c	3,637$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.17	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca1…fb09backed New Zealand	4c	2,558$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.35	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+7.5wins	+0.11per pick	13cpaid	+92.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New Zealand	7c	2,128$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.08	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed New Zealand	6c	2,083$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.98	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked New Zealand	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	146	37.7%55 W · 91 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed New Zealand	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed New Zealand	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed New Zealand	6c	1,637$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.22	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed New Zealand	10c	1,608$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.13	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa614…0bafbacked New Zealand	17c	1,376$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked New Zealand	20c	1,300$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	278	45.7%127 W · 151 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7dc…2e5ebacked New Zealand	18c	1,298$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14a3…b394backed New Zealand	6c	1,083$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New Zealand	6c	1,037$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.01	70	37.1%26 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked New Zealand	6c	1,025$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked New Zealand	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	399	32.6%130 W · 269 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c2…8915backed New Zealand	6c	966.67$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	16cpaid	+98.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked New Zealand	20c	888$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.6	450	38.2%172 W · 278 L	-28.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked New Zealand	6c	705.36$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.64	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked New Zealand	9c	678.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.29	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x816a…8df4backed New Zealand	6c	671.34$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.28	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed New Zealand	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+112.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc1a…6049backed New Zealand	17c	574.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed New Zealand	23c	530.83$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.09	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed New Zealand	6c	529.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.08	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed New Zealand	20c	519.51$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.9	264	45.1%119 W · 145 L	+17.5wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd881…af24backed New Zealand	21c	493.07$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.54	224	50.4%113 W · 111 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17c…d2eabacked New Zealand	6c	476.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	17cpaid	-84.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa6…bfd5backed New Zealand	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	9.2%16 W · 157 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…4a74backed New Zealand	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New Zealand	9c	392.91$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.43	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af5…4bbabacked New Zealand	6c	390$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf67…6842backed New Zealand	18c	377.44$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.94	106	28.3%30 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed New Zealand	11c	364.68$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed New Zealand	18c	364.61$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.3	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked New Zealand	11c	353.81$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	586	42.8%251 W · 335 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked New Zealand	5c	310$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…2fc4backed IR Iran	80c	293.75$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.75	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed New Zealand	17c	290.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	180	28.3%51 W · 129 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed New Zealand	4c	284.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	349	64.5%225 W · 124 L	+73.5wins	+0.21per pick	43cpaid	+123.1%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New Zealand	7c	278.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…4146backed New Zealand	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	145	12.4%18 W · 127 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…fd82backed New Zealand	6c	249.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	213	34.3%73 W · 140 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…eaa7backed New Zealand	18c	223$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.14	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New Zealand	14c	220.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e2…4a97backed New Zealand	13c	205$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.71	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6366…8c41backed IR Iran	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	223	24.2%54 W · 169 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked New Zealand	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	257	19.1%49 W · 208 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked New Zealand	15c	168.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	464	45.5%211 W · 253 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed New Zealand	18c	158.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.33	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764f…64a1backed New Zealand	19c	142$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	177	32.2%57 W · 120 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked New Zealand	20c	141.02$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked New Zealand	21c	108.57$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b28…b87dbacked New Zealand	16c	107.88$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc67…2859backed New Zealand	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	27.5%19 W · 50 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ca…219bbacked New Zealand	18c	98.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	52	19.2%10 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-31%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe896…2698backed New Zealand	17c	87.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4df…2989backed New Zealand	19c	84.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fb…9b84backed New Zealand	16c	84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	152	35.5%54 W · 98 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978f…e14dbacked New Zealand	20c	80$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+9.0wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked New Zealand	20c	76.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	575	41.7%240 W · 335 L	-20.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…1558backed New Zealand	21c	52.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	81	29.6%24 W · 57 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x792c…849ebacked IR Iran	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)this page
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5Over won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5Under won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)New Zealand won
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)New Zealand won
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)IR Iran won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event