TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes1c30,000$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.432913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes34c8,479$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.72580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No66c6,328$4,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.195158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No63c6,099$3,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.323441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd72d…37debacked Yes54c5,933$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e7…1022backed No58c2,730$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b9…dae3backed Yes42c2,730$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes3c2,661$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.86348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No80c2,280$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.8416943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6007254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x888f…7bbfbacked Yes45c1,840$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed No70c1,500$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4555147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked No67c1,496$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.011369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No67c1,434$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.8835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes66c1,385$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.7915332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Yes31c1,290$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.841625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc32…8c5cbacked Yes1c1,082$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No56c1,060$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.5617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No66c1,057$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.557420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e65…a223backed Yes1c1,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No35c999$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.352524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a5…5298backed No55c867$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No69c827.89$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.817850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c822.04$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes44c789.3$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.0341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…e434backed No58c759.91$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.911241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269a…0837backed No68c732.3$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef96…adfabacked Yes32c689.13$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.52977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No79c651.26$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.98757.5%50 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c642.82$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.71,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes33c637.23$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.874729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes30c611.02$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.121735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed Yes17c580$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.61435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes9c550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes37c537.6$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.35928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c536.11$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb04e…8f39backed Yes45c501.38$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd592…9ed9backed No49c500$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2573053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No68c484.29$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8110452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes30c472$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.022119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes31c427.93$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6617355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes47c419.56$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9922347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No54c381.65$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.986442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e4…ecacbacked Yes32c349.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+199.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No70c347$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.993748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc786…d82ebacked Yes36c338.31$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.411216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x884e…fe8abacked Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes29c333$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.685834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aac…a281backed No64c314.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes23c301.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.68741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904065%26 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No71c299.99$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.54136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No59c283.91$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.425655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes17c276.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6418914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30cf…654cbacked Yes41c252.94$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x509f…8fb7backed Yes44c229.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41de…954bbacked Yes44c227$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked Yes29c213.29$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.283531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c42…6e1fbacked No71c172.44$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.95825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a0…2010backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes22c156.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343417.6%6 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes46c152.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4412531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7116…0e72backed Yes39c150.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8cb…945cbacked No71c142.93$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40df…a3fbbacked Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…8e16backed No56c130$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa26…e31ebacked Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No40c121.48$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4114940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb0…9d07backed Yes63c111.29$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.54850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes31c111$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.414630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes46c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.058847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No62c102.04$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7813525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd5…f4f1backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c14…a8f2backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf338…14f2backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9160…1b0cbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2990%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a9…0952backed Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3a8…e6fdbacked Yes43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…4682backed Yes30c82.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba9…2db5backed No60c82.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a5…aa28backed Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62536%9 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x865c…1016backed No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0924…486bbacked No58c70.23$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No49c69.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.575234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x510d…c02abacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1a…ccbebacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No37c62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.843935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked No70c61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No70c60.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.224139%16 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb1…2a7bbacked Yes43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x347f…913fbacked Yes44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf83…7f0fbacked Yes38c52.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1510137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.