Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2e8418031b448cfbe7e5f8e9d4d91709a1e73cb457746a0d937f3cf488af14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.43 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes | 34c | 8,479$2,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,896.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 66c | 6,328$4,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.19 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 63c | 6,099$3,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…37debacked Yes | 54c | 5,933$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…1022backed No | 58c | 2,730$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…dae3backed Yes | 42c | 2,730$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 2,661$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 80c | 2,280$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.84 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…7bbfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,840$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 67c | 1,496$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.01 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 67c | 1,434$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.88 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 66c | 1,385$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.79 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 31c | 1,290$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…8c5cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,082$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 56c | 1,060$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.56 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed No | 66c | 1,057$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.55 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 35c | 999$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.35 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…5298backed No | 55c | 867$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 827.89$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.8 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 822.04$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 789.3$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.03 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…e434backed No | 58c | 759.91$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed No | 68c | 732.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef96…adfabacked Yes | 32c | 689.13$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 79c | 651.26$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 642.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 33c | 637.23$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 30c | 611.02$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 17c | 580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 37c | 537.6$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 536.11$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…8f39backed Yes | 45c | 501.38$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 49c | 500$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 68c | 484.29$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 30c | 472$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 31c | 427.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 47c | 419.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 54c | 381.65$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…ecacbacked Yes | 32c | 349.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 70c | 347$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 36c | 338.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884e…fe8abacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 29c | 333$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aac…a281backed No | 64c | 314.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 23c | 301.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 71c | 299.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 59c | 283.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 17c | 276.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…654cbacked Yes | 41c | 252.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 44c | 229.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…954bbacked Yes | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 29c | 213.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked No | 71c | 172.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…2010backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 22c | 156.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 46c | 152.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…0e72backed Yes | 39c | 150.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…945cbacked No | 71c | 142.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40df…a3fbbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…8e16backed No | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…e31ebacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 40c | 121.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9d07backed Yes | 63c | 111.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 46c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 62c | 102.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…a8f2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…14f2backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1b0cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a8…e6fdbacked Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…4682backed Yes | 30c | 82.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…2db5backed No | 60c | 82.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…1016backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0924…486bbacked No | 58c | 70.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 49c | 69.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…c02abacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1a…ccbebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 70c | 60.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…2a7bbacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347f…913fbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf83…7f0fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.