Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8e60dac80b1d1eda16035c81feaa83a593013f1764e4805b97e005f557fd41

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,860 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16da…05c0backed No	21c	1,999$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.46	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Yes	79c	680$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.8	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	77c	519.31$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.77	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	65c	480.07$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.07	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafa4…0dfebacked No	19c	359.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.2	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No	31c	294.46$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.1	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed No	21c	266.47$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.24	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	63c	150$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.5	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed No	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	37c	94.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	76c	70.17$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.78	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	23c	67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No	21c	48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No	41c	40.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	60c	20.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb720…15e5backed Yes	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e1…e621backed Yes	66c	19.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.83	70	72.9%51 W · 19 L	+7.3wins	+0.10per pick	62cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event