Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x946ce1fc05db30fc6c88096822066729b93f532328d4196d7a063964cca1ec56

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,018 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16da…05c0backed No	18c	3,068$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.22	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes	78c	800$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.75	108	49.1%53 W · 55 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No	27c	734.22$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.25	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No	23c	516$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.42	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No	20c	445$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	68c	211.26$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.6	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	66c	110$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.6	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	33c	110$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.25	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	31c	107$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	68c	95.29$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.32	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	55c	85.18$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.83	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	70c	83.21$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.96	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	75c	78.79$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.7	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…7016backed Yes	66c	55$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.75	42	69%29 W · 13 L	+7.5wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	50c	55$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	77c	54.99$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.65	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f20…3a2abacked Yes	77c	52$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	57	64.9%37 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a57…ac32backed Yes	50c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	141	48.2%68 W · 73 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	78c	36.28$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	173	57.8%100 W · 73 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes	68c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event