Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ad3e5d2fed9cc53d312834be8800061dbdd54419e7cb2bcdddd7dfd847a005

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,667 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed No	40c	784.19$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.34	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	59c	527.48$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.17	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	62c	506.67$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.02	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No	29c	360$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.05	108	49.1%53 W · 55 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes	11c	290$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.31	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	15c	170$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.5	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	69c	140.49$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.93	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	49c	106.17$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.81	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	72c	80$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.56	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	59c	63.37$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	60c	60.5$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.19	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e1…e621backed No	77c	51.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	70	72.9%51 W · 19 L	+7.3wins	+0.10per pick	62cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa443…1826backed No	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	41c	49.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	40c	45.63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	38c	45.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96b…9c4cbacked Yes	60c	42.83$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.13	205	53.7%110 W · 95 L	+21.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+25%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event