Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23dbc2bf8f5f2917e9d765d09056d8033a89ec681231a9eb4cda604324e0d027

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	69c	1,700$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.99	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No	30c	1,332$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$928.17	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	44c	989.71$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.69	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No	30c	792.53$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$554.77	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	70c	789.99$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	70c	732.59$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No	28c	668.04$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.78	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	73c	548.85$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.47	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	74c	492$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.08	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed No	38c	422.08$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.13	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	72c	414.45$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.4	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	56c	400$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	26c	324.89$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.42	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d34…3e28backed Yes	60c	289.27$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.4	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	72c	273.62$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.01	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	49c	266.63$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.34	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	69c	227.78$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.89	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	58c	200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.5	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed No	29c	153.36$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.86	144	45.8%66 W · 78 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4edf…4f56backed Yes	70c	153.19$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	39c	128.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.97	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5035…cf0dbacked Yes	58c	103.08$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	96	29.2%28 W · 68 L	-8.5wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No	32c	75$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	33c	74.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.4	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed No	40c	70$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.23	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	17c	70$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.1	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	54c	64.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.66	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	57c	55$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.65	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	41c	52$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.68	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes	72c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	27c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.75	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed No	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	61c	43.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	64c	41.82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.87	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe573…0a38backed Yes	74c	40.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb23…8189backed No	75c	40.49$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.28	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	70cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	61c	25.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Yes	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event