Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a8c1d4d0fcd894937c1494a45de3ea5b99df4d8409c28adaa880d65bca1c86

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,025 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed No	27c	1,734$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.88	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850c…5f62backed Yes	77c	740$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.2	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	72c	400.53$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.06	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	75c	378.35$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.77	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	72c	334.07$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.18	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes	75c	226.67$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.67	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	75c	211.66$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.12	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48f7…f949backed No	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6175…bf94backed Yes	69c	123.26$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.67	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	35c	104$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	25c	89.67$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed No	25c	69.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.57	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	76c	66.14$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.14	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed No	32c	60.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	65c	54$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd10d…8f16backed No	34c	53.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+3.5wins	+0.29per pick	54cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	75c	50.54$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.63	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	25c	43.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked Yes	73c	39.22$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.59	434	60.4%262 W · 172 L	+33.5wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	75c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event