Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x857ed72697d8beeca643d57dec5213bb8fd262c609fdb95b66d3f82690162e48

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed No	22c	3,219$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.8	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	80c	1,861$1,485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.1	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No	25c	1,241$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.37	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	75c	867.89$647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.28	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	74c	712.57$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.9	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	77c	700$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes	72c	471.72$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.01	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	16c	448.98$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.93	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	77c	441.69$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.83	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7326…cf4cbacked Yes	72c	430.56$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.56	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc093…49e8backed Yes	71c	414.58$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.58	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed Yes	74c	187.5$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.42	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	72c	185.58$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.72	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	26c	170$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	70c	150$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.5	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d34…3e28backed Yes	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes	67c	85$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.35	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	66c	84.56$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.75	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48f7…f949backed No	21c	57.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No	21c	55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes	69c	53$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.52	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e1…e621backed Yes	68c	51.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.47	70	72.9%51 W · 19 L	+7.3wins	+0.10per pick	62cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Yes	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	70c	31$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes	78c	29.3$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.45	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event