Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf0e8f4494dc2b167aedf640b5796d3286e3bb76df73af4801171e57021e9149

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,813 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	31c	485.72$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.52	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb23…8189backed No	75c	275$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.5	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	70cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	65c	262.7$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	69c	200$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b2e…b450backed No	69c	137$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.47	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	25c	100.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	68c	55$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	69c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	34c	34.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a8…db62backed No	70c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc1…49d7backed No	70c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No	70c	22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306b…179ebacked No	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event