Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd85785168d91391f281f7bec4d31930b38b85e5d433e0d48c3325d734258196

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,202 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x300c…6a92backed Yes	76c	3,789$2,876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,875.72	108	49.1%53 W · 55 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No	25c	2,500$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,875	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No	32c	2,158$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,476.82	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	75c	2,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No	25c	1,271$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$955.48	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed No	22c	675.29$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.8	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	32c	319.42$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.24	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	78c	311.26$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.72	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	6c	239.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	5c	234$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f1a…7a49backed Yes	78c	232.31$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.2	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	18c	220$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.4	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	69c	149.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.49	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	17c	107.44$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.71	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	68c	100$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes	79c	100$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7114…6432backed No	21c	100$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+5.0wins	+0.19per pick	34cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked No	17c	100$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83	85	25.9%22 W · 63 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked No	14c	100$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	75c	91$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.57	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	76c	86.43$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.26	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	75c	75.17$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.18	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked No	29c	68.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	81	44.4%36 W · 45 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3af…9fe8backed Yes	74c	67.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Yes	68c	59.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	64c	57.64$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.89	218	36.2%79 W · 139 L	-19.0wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4edf…4f56backed Yes	79c	57.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	67c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe373…4807backed No	26c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	74c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes	68c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…af60backed Yes	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	68cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes	68c	49.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes	68c	49.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	27c	44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.12	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed Yes	72c	28.8$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	65c	27.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd47…805abacked Yes	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	67c	22.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd2…61f1backed Yes	76c	21.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8a…f8e2backed Yes	76c	21.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes	77c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	71c	16.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed Yes	68c	16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	116	42.2%49 W · 67 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a5…a8a9backed Yes	79c	14.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event