NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac636d2db661741c66c82c00618da66f1b8b29bc861d2fead304c60f99c442b2

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Pistons, Knicks
Resolved: Feb 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $206,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $209,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc660…bd28backed Pistons	50c	124,290$61,684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62,605.51	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks	50c	52,712$26,356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,356.27	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Knicks	51c	50,000$25,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,500	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Pistons	49c	40,000$19,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,400	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Knicks	51c	36,768$18,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,751.68	545	39.6%216 W · 329 L	-28.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Knicks	50c	24,090$12,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,045	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	48c	6,229$3,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,213.38	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Knicks	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	185	47%87 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Knicks	51c	3,922$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	208	49.5%103 W · 105 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pistons	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons	49c	2,812$1,378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,434.35	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Pistons	50c	2,704$1,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,352	275	46.2%127 W · 148 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Knicks	51c	2,614$1,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,333	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Knicks	51c	2,490$1,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.89	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pistons	49c	2,106$1,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,074.01	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Pistons	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	128	44.5%57 W · 71 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Knicks	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e46…35efbacked Knicks	52c	1,918$1,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.3	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons	52c	1,187$622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.09	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pistons	49c	1,115$544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.97	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Knicks	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pistons	49c	985.04$481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.25	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Knicks	51c	799.99$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	40c	701.11$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.15	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Knicks	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c34…05cfbacked Knicks	48c	569.3$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.04	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons	47c	487.65$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.15	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a64…887fbacked Knicks	51c	449.37$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Pistons	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	205	52.2%107 W · 98 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Knicks	50c	393.95$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.98	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed Knicks	52c	307.69$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-7.4wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Knicks	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Knicks	51c	300$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Knicks	31c	225.96$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.08	558	46.8%261 W · 297 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Pistons	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Knicks	34c	200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	263	39.5%104 W · 159 L	-13.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c0a…7affbacked Knicks	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-5.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	48c	157.76$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.71	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Knicks	54c	129.63$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	619	57.5%356 W · 263 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Pistons	79c	127.34$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.34	432	69.2%299 W · 133 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Knicks	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Knicks	46c	107.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+6.3wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc42…05c0backed Knicks	50c	100.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Knicks	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Knicks	51c	98.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Knicks	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Pistons	49c	96.36$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.62	137	50.4%69 W · 68 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Pistons	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	116	51.7%60 W · 56 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons	59c	73.17$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Knicks	60c	71.9$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Knicks	50c	69.73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.87	481	46.2%222 W · 259 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Knicks	49c	65.63$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	195	54.9%107 W · 88 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fb…b665backed Knicks	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	141	56.7%80 W · 61 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Pistons	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-6.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Knicks	51c	52.71$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Knicks	51c	51.35$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x113d…a76bbacked Pistons	50c	50.2$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Knicks	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc525…daf0backed Knicks	51c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1c…0be3backed Pistons	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Knicks	50c	49.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	164	43.9%72 W · 92 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Knicks	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2b…7f04backed Pistons	28c	45.15$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.51	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae1…7bb6backed Pistons	50c	44$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Knicks	51c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	539	45.3%244 W · 295 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb38…1659backed Pistons	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	46cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed Pistons	49c	41.14$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.98	108	56.5%61 W · 47 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Pistons	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	378	52.9%200 W · 178 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64aa…7f42backed Pistons	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c00…741dbacked Knicks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed Pistons	69c	36.26$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.26	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Pistons	50c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Knicks	36c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Knicks	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	169	35.5%60 W · 109 L	-16.9wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Knicks	50c	26.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	150	40%60 W · 90 L	-14.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2da1…26a7backed Pistons	50c	20.06$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.03	89	60.7%54 W · 35 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Pistons (-5.5)this page
1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5No won
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 25.5No won
Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5No won
Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5No won
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5No won
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Knicks vs. PistonsPistons won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Under won
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5No won
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event