TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Misa Esportsof Misa Esports, OlyBet SB
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd00…952dbacked Misa Esports64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6005867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf292…a6d3backed OlyBet SB36c4,085$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.283961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa14e…abf6backed Misa Esports72c3,948$2,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.56771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed OlyBet SB24c3,437$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.0180942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked OlyBet SB36c2,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90092456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked OlyBet SB27c2,191$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.1920238.6%78 W · 124 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed OlyBet SB18c1,717$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.741,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed OlyBet SB22c1,661$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.5623732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x920b…47d2backed OlyBet SB38c1,503$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.132373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked OlyBet SB23c1,307$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2967843.6%34 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed OlyBet SB29c1,207$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.161,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed OlyBet SB22c965.89$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.495,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed OlyBet SB9c918.56$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.182,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8830…1cdfbacked Misa Esports75c754.64$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.513100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5879…b671backed OlyBet SB32c729.37$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.092653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Misa Esports77c652.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6819357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked OlyBet SB9c640.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0238032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed OlyBet SB22c611.8$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8933627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4554…8deebacked OlyBet SB22c573$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.21942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OlyBet SB18c522.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.346,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked OlyBet SB28c514$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.235,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed OlyBet SB11c500.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.722,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked OlyBet SB15c479.34$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.624,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed OlyBet SB19c473.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9531241.3%129 W · 183 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed Misa Esports64c456.67$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.173050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked OlyBet SB19c440$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.66036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Misa Esports68c428.72$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1975833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Misa Esports64c423.08$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2645748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed OlyBet SB30c420.28$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0899148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed OlyBet SB35c416.78$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7438841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b77…6ba1backed OlyBet SB25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked OlyBet SB20c393.92$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.654,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Misa Esports77c376.73$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.241,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked OlyBet SB27c370$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.935131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked OlyBet SB34c360$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.458343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1d…3080backed Misa Esports75c351.35$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8413258.3%77 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b1…bf04backed OlyBet SB10c301.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.432343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed OlyBet SB27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8137145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed Misa Esports76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7221850.9%111 W · 107 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Misa Esports67c298.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9122567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked OlyBet SB22c297$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3420248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3692…aa85backed OlyBet SB21c280$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc595…994dbacked OlyBet SB10c247.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick12cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Misa Esports75c241$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2510438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d96…3d50backed Misa Esports64c231.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.521478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick61cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed OlyBet SB21c223.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked OlyBet SB36c222.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Misa Esports77c220.77$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9475438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Misa Esports63c215$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1623244.8%104 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed OlyBet SB9c213.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9788330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0905…1523backed Misa Esports71c211.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.865851.7%30 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed OlyBet SB25c204.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1718645.2%84 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Misa Esports77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4624260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed OlyBet SB15c187.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1140639.4%160 W · 246 L-1.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed OlyBet SB26c169.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410541%43 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked OlyBet SB16c159.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.283,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed OlyBet SB10c150.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.495,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked OlyBet SB17c147.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.361,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Misa Esports77c142.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.772,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed OlyBet SB33c135.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.711,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed Misa Esports76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.585766.7%38 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Misa Esports77c129.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.72,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…b543backed OlyBet SB36c125.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.433935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c9…28dcbacked Misa Esports80c125.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.11080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc3…0e9cbacked OlyBet SB32c121.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Misa Esports75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3066446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Misa Esports77c118.8$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3222447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed OlyBet SB28c114.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3112754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd85…1d60backed OlyBet SB35c113.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020147.3%95 W · 106 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked OlyBet SB11c112$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed OlyBet SB28c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Misa Esports68c108.36$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.782,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked OlyBet SB30c104.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5244747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed OlyBet SB29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked OlyBet SB12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241516.6%69 W · 346 L-36.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54f1…668ebacked OlyBet SB10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+113.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Misa Esports79c99.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2445162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Misa Esports63c94.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3916250%81 W · 81 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18d…9c5bbacked Misa Esports54c94.57$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0515951.6%82 W · 77 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed OlyBet SB21c90.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19a…2d2dbacked OlyBet SB18c81.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a2…863bbacked OlyBet SB25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Misa Esports76c79.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.32,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Misa Esports65c74.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7332544.3%144 W · 181 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked OlyBet SB20c73.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.672,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed OlyBet SB21c73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.333043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed OlyBet SB21c72.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5b…6c2abacked OlyBet SB22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a80…df6dbacked Misa Esports74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5710867.6%73 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d3…78c7backed Misa Esports63c61.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.822166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5f…0689backed OlyBet SB28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234e…1160backed OlyBet SB32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.941437%153 W · 261 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed OlyBet SB35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204926.5%13 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Misa Esports73c56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.123,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed OlyBet SB27c50.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7667750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Misa Esports77c48.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2710041%41 W · 59 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Misa Esports75c46.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5919347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Misa Esports65c44.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6326448.1%127 W · 137 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd1…f311backed OlyBet SB35c43.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Misa Esports67c42.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3128052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.