TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TYLOOof TYLOO, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$548,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,378 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ba…7387backed Team Falcons0c139,560$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked TYLOO36c14,041$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,041.073036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed TYLOO48c13,060$6,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,831.314537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked TYLOO46c9,761$4,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,313.1113315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Falcons65c6,694$4,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,360.9421939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons61c6,063$3,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,706.062,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons62c6,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,719.9681751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9c…b3e0backed TYLOO44c6,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.772263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+70%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons47c5,992$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.413,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons74c5,879$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350.4437646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed TYLOO33c5,638$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,777.466634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked TYLOO42c5,601$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,271.7547738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Falcons55c5,041$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.6553746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Team Falcons50c4,863$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.3217857.3%102 W · 76 L+27.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked TYLOO17c4,282$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,53522927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x246b…fb5bbacked Team Falcons74c4,068$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.993762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons59c3,567$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.911,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons61c3,303$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.022,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons64c3,271$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.286,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Falcons71c3,012$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.8824346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Team Falcons17c2,919$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.2524544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons68c2,907$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.22,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Team Falcons72c2,481$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.9372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed TYLOO25c2,380$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.9711240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed TYLOO27c2,288$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.6843933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Team Falcons74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48035850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked TYLOO26c2,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48061228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b0…b21dbacked Team Falcons1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b9…0eddbacked Team Falcons49c1,940$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.274645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons63c1,931$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.151,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TYLOO59c1,821$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.543,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons62c1,738$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.7288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed TYLOO31c1,708$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.895651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed TYLOO28c1,688$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.4778639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons58c1,546$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.741,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TYLOO56c1,541$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.337,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed TYLOO26c1,538$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.4626549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked TYLOO37c1,515$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.568951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Falcons73c1,493$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.714045%18 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…d65bbacked Team Falcons60c1,445$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.23351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked TYLOO38c1,354$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.1417148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team Falcons51c1,351$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.853,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Team Falcons75c1,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Team Falcons68c1,282$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.5434156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons76c1,255$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.840950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Falcons80c1,253$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1141260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed TYLOO52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.9933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed TYLOO65c1,160$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.9111643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa43a…5cf4backed Team Falcons66c1,133$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons55c1,127$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.244,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Falcons58c1,118$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.7120942.1%88 W · 121 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Team Falcons47c1,112$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.0512641.3%52 W · 74 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7556…0f44backed Team Falcons74c1,075$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007851.3%40 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x417f…f97bbacked Team Falcons68c1,063$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.885133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked TYLOO38c1,053$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.6319834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons58c1,052$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.1639248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed TYLOO38c1,022$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.22458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0932536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed TYLOO52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9976546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed TYLOO26c999.98$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9846749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Team Falcons15c983.38$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3612352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons62c972.8$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.941,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Falcons64c915$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.619741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed TYLOO22c900$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7051,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons58c870.59$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.8780744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed TYLOO46c846.35$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5922843.9%100 W · 128 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Team Falcons75c838.01$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.613453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb813…f0efbacked TYLOO51c837.22$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed TYLOO28c834.25$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.320440.7%83 W · 121 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked TYLOO23c810.92$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.3835550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed TYLOO26c804.25$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.2511940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed TYLOO27c801.85$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.3511247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Team Falcons62c800$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4966253.2%33 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TYLOO42c793$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.265,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Falcons51c775.63$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.7646949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Falcons49c753.75$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.8529831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked TYLOO41c736.46$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.39538.9%37 W · 58 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed TYLOO52c722.34$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2246345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…f044backed Team Falcons50c720$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3b…d0b8backed Team Falcons69c718.79$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.091968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed TYLOO23c696.4$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.0860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons53c680$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.919340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons52c652.51$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.735341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked Team Falcons65c650$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.512132.2%39 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons67c639.09$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.513,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Falcons72c635.59$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.291,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Team Falcons79c630.88$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4989258.7%54 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed TYLOO40c623.82$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.767648.7%37 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked TYLOO34c615.15$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.156339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed TYLOO51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2948242.7%35 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Team Falcons48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28831444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked TYLOO21c590.91$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.51,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed TYLOO39c588.78$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.5419342%81 W · 112 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked TYLOO11c579.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0769624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked TYLOO45c570.14$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.3118043.3%78 W · 102 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c0…b0e0backed TYLOO28c535.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.717552%39 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed TYLOO42c526.36$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.3633553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Team Falcons48c520$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.69546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05df…e268backed Team Falcons67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3352576%19 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+30.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed TYLOO5c500$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4757418.9%14 W · 60 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.