Golf · resolved market

Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe27bfafe40e48a1fafb6c643a35ec9f45fed29c425e19b9de819313040d515c

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,078,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,078,255 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50be…371bbacked Yes	0c	151,000$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…1eebbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5711…2f81backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	65,433$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.65	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes	1c	47,349$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.38	68	7.4%5 W · 63 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…b8e0backed Yes	2c	35,617$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.44	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-33%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…4374backed Yes	0c	33,440$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf98…2f11backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e83…0523backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a66…e153backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	16,363$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.15	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a09…0c4fbacked Yes	1c	10,219$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55fc…a2fdbacked Yes	1c	10,178$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc3…0e20backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c30…9069backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	1c	8,073$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.23	44	2.3%1 W · 43 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	7,028$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.99	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	1c	6,172$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.89	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes	1c	5,930$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.58	56	0%0 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0231…45d0backed Yes	1c	4,364$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	82	9.8%8 W · 74 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3c…c88ebacked Yes	1c	4,176$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,308$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.94	39	2.6%1 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36c…6b40backed Yes	1c	2,987$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	2,205$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8646…ed78backed Yes	1c	2,198$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	4c	2,161$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.21	67	1.5%1 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-94%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c2a…ab50backed Yes	1c	1,967$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x356f…639fbacked Yes	1c	1,920$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes	1c	1,779$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,751$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f0…3196backed Yes	1c	1,650$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae0…af23backed Yes	2c	1,618$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1425…d3e7backed Yes	3c	1,588$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b81…ad36backed Yes	1c	1,355$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	1c	1,293$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-56%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes	1c	1,285$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ee…cbe9backed Yes	1c	1,251$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,213$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	32	3.1%1 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	1,149$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9e…9dd7backed Yes	1c	985$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf08e…1434backed Yes	1c	965$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe590…4884backed Yes	1c	822.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59ee…d4e3backed Yes	6c	534.11$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0e…9bc5backed Yes	2c	509.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event