Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f5e88162b712d8a1706451b4b52832193b2e961fe49095f873bbf44e492229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,473,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,880,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,473,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 249,998$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…e94fbacked Yes | 0c | 241,519$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.62 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 181,473$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 60,696$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…01b8backed Yes | 0c | 53,584$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…64a7backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 1c | 49,098$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.21 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 47,536$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.61 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…6197backed Yes | 0c | 29,670$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…1d1cbacked Yes | 0c | 29,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefd…24d1backed Yes | 0c | 27,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a0…669ebacked Yes | 0c | 24,285$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…ada7backed Yes | 0c | 23,880$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…f4dfbacked Yes | 0c | 23,771$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes | 0c | 22,012$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 0c | 21,062$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…eafbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,499$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…a125backed Yes | 1c | 20,292$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd7…1441backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…6702backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…69adbacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153d…1be9backed Yes | 1c | 15,432$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac09…83ebbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…737cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,384$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4939…a2e4backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 0c | 13,501$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…f666backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,428$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…11e3backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…1c22backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…4362backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…ba29backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…908fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…758dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…c39dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,472$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e7…0df2backed Yes | 0c | 9,255$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…e130backed Yes | 0c | 8,414$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…e15bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 0c | 7,786$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08bc…91febacked Yes | 1c | 7,501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c21…2d3ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…faafbacked Yes | 0c | 7,365$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,938$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…017dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,910$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…cea7backed Yes | 1c | 6,485$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…ea00backed Yes | 0c | 6,345$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 0c | 6,283$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 0c | 6,160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a1a8backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,660$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…3445backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…5b82backed Yes | 0c | 5,166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…f0c8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…7978backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…4d6fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…fc32backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa655…1cd3backed Yes | 0c | 4,889$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…afbcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,376$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcd…f5b6backed Yes | 0c | 4,168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa21…f3f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,139$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…87bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…19e3backed Yes | 0c | 3,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…5290backed Yes | 0c | 3,390$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9667backed Yes | 0c | 3,375$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…fe7bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,316$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 0c | 3,157$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,970$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…74f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,663$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…c498backed Yes | 0c | 2,625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…f98bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e9…bc89backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…85bcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,475$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked Yes | 1c | 2,180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 2,051$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…ff3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,245$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.