Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31598667e62575c9bc1d53b0bcb8f623a046f2b6aff18b4afd56e03e34967242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $329,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 175,701$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.19 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 12c | 17,722$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…99a3backed No | 19c | 9,866$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 7,839$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 11c | 3,160$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.62 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 17c | 2,443$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 20c | 2,023$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.01 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…1f6fbacked No | 15c | 1,590$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked No | 10c | 1,522$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…b955backed No | 10c | 1,300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 10c | 1,170$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…31c4backed No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…161cbacked No | 14c | 902.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed No | 13c | 884.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed No | 10c | 726.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 4c | 684.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…c4e0backed No | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 414.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 377.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…43e3backed No | 13c | 264.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 4c | 260.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 6c | 237.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 9c | 232.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 11c | 217.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 17c | 206.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…d307backed No | 12c | 195.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…8402backed No | 11c | 186.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed No | 12c | 104.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.