TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba38…e406backed G2 Esports64c35,689$22,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,690.4254751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked 100 Thieves35c17,537$6,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,088.085358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked G2 Esports66c12,241$8,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.9333153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed 100 Thieves33c11,844$3,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.761637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked G2 Esports64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.9978162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…68a3backed 100 Thieves38c9,700$3,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,682.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked 100 Thieves15c8,397$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.3910238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed G2 Esports63c7,500$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed 100 Thieves35c7,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9726050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed G2 Esports65c5,397$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.4441537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed G2 Esports65c5,053$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.576038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed G2 Esports64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8005952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed G2 Esports63c3,033$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.2528548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed G2 Esports66c3,024$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.112347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked 100 Thieves33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9904630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 100 Thieves6c2,241$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8954342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 100 Thieves12c2,174$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.031,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 100 Thieves34c2,100$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71441734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 100 Thieves15c2,053$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30839042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked G2 Esports65c1,918$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.177234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x54f7…bbcfbacked G2 Esports77c1,655$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed 100 Thieves35c1,496$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.4611255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a90…1dddbacked G2 Esports65c1,441$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.511040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked G2 Esports72c1,388$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.3411458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x211b…1872backed G2 Esports65c1,385$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.621936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked G2 Esports60c1,350$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54094361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 100 Thieves34c1,267$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7128955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked 100 Thieves26c1,248$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.076931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports64c1,225$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4464269%29 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Esports62c1,207$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.5151749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed 100 Thieves35c1,120$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.1618952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked G2 Esports72c1,054$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.871,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked G2 Esports64c1,004$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.4453355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed G2 Esports64c1,002$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.7256357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed 100 Thieves35c1,000$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.675747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed 100 Thieves35c999.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed 100 Thieves47c959.99$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.262128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked G2 Esports70c936.15$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.0813759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 100 Thieves31c909.8$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed G2 Esports65c896.65$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.8315843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked G2 Esports65c853.64$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.0624846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports64c823.09$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.3153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed G2 Esports66c821.99$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…635cbacked G2 Esports65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.236045%27 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 100 Thieves23c767.84$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.61,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ac…b7c9backed G2 Esports66c763.55$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.862161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d64…ada1backed G2 Esports65c740.68$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed 100 Thieves20c729.41$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2842540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked 100 Thieves23c720.54$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2621136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed 100 Thieves36c713.7$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9315553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked G2 Esports69c707.59$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22035142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 100 Thieves37c683$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.351,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed 100 Thieves35c659$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.657445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked 100 Thieves36c625$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22529733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b26…6091backed 100 Thieves2c613.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-69.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked 100 Thieves35c609.99$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.525444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked 100 Thieves11c602$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.211717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed 100 Thieves12c587.38$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.277929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 100 Thieves31c558.07$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17368458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed 100 Thieves36c547.42$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.077930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed G2 Esports63c540$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.818049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked 100 Thieves3c516.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7531153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed G2 Esports65c510.1$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5325453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed G2 Esports63c509.61$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5625660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked G2 Esports74c505.96$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2312147.1%57 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked G2 Esports78c491.87$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed 100 Thieves31c489.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.884542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 100 Thieves13c485.04$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0533942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed 100 Thieves33c459.67$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.893834.2%13 W · 25 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed 100 Thieves23c382.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.526932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ac7…3ef9backed 100 Thieves4c378$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed G2 Esports65c376.92$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.9223463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe44c…32a5backed 100 Thieves8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+88.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed G2 Esports66c360.91$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.915349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 100 Thieves17c351$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.341,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1d…8b42backed G2 Esports36c330$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+77%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked 100 Thieves35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10536648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed G2 Esports65c300$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10622047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe43…8f09backed G2 Esports65c265.53$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.94862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked 100 Thieves34c255.75$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.893423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed 100 Thieves9c251.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.534739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed 100 Thieves28c250.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6519337.8%73 W · 120 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed G2 Esports65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.545250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed 100 Thieves31c248.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.126732.8%22 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4db9…55ebbacked 100 Thieves16c239.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked 100 Thieves32c228$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.410951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked G2 Esports64c226.16$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8714452.1%75 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed 100 Thieves16c222$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6499846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed G2 Esports80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4024250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked 100 Thieves33c199.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833c…42b4backed 100 Thieves24c198.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.95927.1%16 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed G2 Esports66c190.93$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.923145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked G2 Esports65c188.43$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9518653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed 100 Thieves33c180$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.820840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 100 Thieves19c179.59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4926634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed 100 Thieves35c174.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4444342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a11…ef8ebacked G2 Esports65c169.96$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.492564%16 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bf…b006backed G2 Esports65c169.94$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.481060%6 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed 100 Thieves35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed 100 Thieves36c134$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2418735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.