Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f58c4a8ffe758f967e54745bc9b9521b29ee1e37c54e7a9eec07939e60fd425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf17a…fa3abacked No | 61c | 4,273$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.28 | 162 | 60.5%98 W · 64 L | +22.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 63c | 1,596$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.36 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f75…6c7ebacked Yes | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Yes | 40c | 671.16$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 63c | 342.73$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…dcfdbacked No | 64c | 332.56$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Yes | 36c | 320$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…45d1backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 127 | 24.4%31 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…1018backed No | 60c | 269.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 36c | 152.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 63c | 139.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…46abbacked Yes | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 73.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32a…5d9ebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…76e2backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Yes | 37c | 50.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 236 | 40.3%95 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…0dfbbacked No | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 65c | 39.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6010…d130backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…d5debacked Yes | 38c | 33.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Yes | 39c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 452 | 54.6%247 W · 205 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 37c | 27.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed No | 62c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…30a1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 60c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83e7…4aebbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 4+ shotsthis page
- Alex Baena: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 2+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 2+ shotsNo won
- Alex Baena: 3+ shotsNo won
- Alex Baena: 4+ shotsNo won
- Alex Baena: 5+ shotsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assistsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goalsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shotsNo won
- Cucurella: 1+ shotsYes won
- Cucurella: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Cucurella: 2+ shotsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 4+ shotsNo won
- David Raya: 2+ savesNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ assistsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ goalsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 4+ shotsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gavi Paez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
- Juan Musso: 2+ savesNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ shotsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 4+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsYes won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.