TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof FURIA, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$531,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$606,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96a8…6107backed FUT Esports36c70,976$25,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,602.121723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FUT Esports21c35,113$7,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,517.41,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked FURIA79c32,200$25,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,783.882948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed FUT Esports24c27,741$6,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,679.3813548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed FUT Esports37c22,886$8,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,387.213666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed FURIA63c22,651$14,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,380.7525255.6%140 W · 112 L+18.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89a6…429abacked FURIA62c21,600$13,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,2081861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FURIA64c20,006$12,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,289.3717062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked FUT Esports6c18,283$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.4322129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked FURIA63c15,721$9,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,814.049565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FUT Esports36c15,000$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.9955236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d2…bd9fbacked FUT Esports32c13,975$4,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,519.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked FURIA76c12,986$9,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,058.3916142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked FUT Esports35c11,542$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.8614145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3342…f908backed FURIA64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FURIA62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.9975350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2787…e0c4backed FURIA66c9,594$6,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,261.811163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked FUT Esports22c9,008$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95027041.1%111 W · 159 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FURIA69c6,408$4,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.4964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked FURIA66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04035940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed FURIA64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.8510449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd789…3059backed FURIA63c5,736$3,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FURIA65c5,500$3,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92521055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked FUT Esports38c5,265$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.6724943.8%109 W · 140 L-1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked FUT Esports35c5,174$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.0219443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked FUT Esports35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.9921424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed FUT Esports36c5,000$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.5923243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked FURIA66c4,571$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.5923658.5%138 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FURIA65c4,554$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.932552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7210…bcebbacked FURIA80c4,170$3,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked FURIA64c3,635$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.5623646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71d6…7248backed FUT Esports5c3,586$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.312810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked FUT Esports20c3,571$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.0972644.4%322 W · 404 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FURIA71c3,443$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.261,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked FURIA66c3,400$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15614247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed FURIA80c3,347$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.5213357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed FURIA65c3,072$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.27459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed FURIA65c3,042$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.76560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b0…180dbacked FUT Esports14c2,914$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FURIA69c2,898$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.0287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports32c2,839$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.682,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed FURIA65c2,803$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.056546.2%30 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA63c2,437$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.191,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed FURIA62c2,305$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.921854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed FURIA67c2,255$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.1335054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed FURIA65c2,064$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.48452.4%44 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed FUT Esports33c2,001$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.8618557.8%107 W · 78 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked FUT Esports3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be4…a700backed FURIA62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.995253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed FUT Esports16c1,990$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.979728.9%28 W · 69 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FURIA65c1,970$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.597952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked FURIA62c1,907$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.663357.6%19 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked FURIA62c1,772$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.455451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed FUT Esports37c1,749$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.2211341.6%47 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed FUT Esports13c1,743$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.779735.1%34 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FUT Esports26c1,719$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.6760434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd41a…aa9fbacked FUT Esports28c1,667$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.611330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56d…c3d9backed FUT Esports16c1,640$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.594835.4%17 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed FURIA67c1,599$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.6420153.7%108 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed FURIA64c1,557$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.7815862.7%99 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FUT Esports2c1,551$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0232832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FUT Esports38c1,514$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.811,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FURIA59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61596740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports35c1,400$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49075145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed FURIA65c1,285$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.775459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked FUT Esports36c1,264$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.7225651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FUT Esports34c1,209$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.812,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked FUT Esports2c1,200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299216.3%15 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked FUT Esports2c1,137$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5169624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA63c1,133$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.331,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FUT Esports34c1,100$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3795,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed FUT Esports36c1,056$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…9900backed FUT Esports38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked FUT Esports29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005651.8%29 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked FURIA65c1,032$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.314440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA64c1,012$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.982,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked FUT Esports30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed FURIA62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3807844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee1…3e22backed FURIA65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked FUT Esports21c999.96$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9914331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked FUT Esports35c987.98$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7948548.7%236 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6810…1c7dbacked FURIA79c944.46$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.342969%20 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed FUT Esports35c862.86$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30210739.3%42 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked FURIA66c855.86$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.9938054.5%207 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed FURIA65c830.4$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.642373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FUT Esports27c804.39$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.452,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked FURIA75c782$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.746952.2%36 W · 33 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick66cpaid-22.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed FURIA64c768.97$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.8337145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed FUT Esports37c765.54$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7914546.9%68 W · 77 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FUT Esports30c752$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.055,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked FURIA80c750.65$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.652763%17 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FUT Esports23c750$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.63,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked FUT Esports14c675.24$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0227838.1%106 W · 172 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FUT Esports20c665.82$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3172153.7%387 W · 334 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed FUT Esports33c662.28$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.71,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed FURIA63c659.31$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.9445058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FUT Esports21c652.69$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.141,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b39…7658backed FURIA64c625$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked FURIA65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.384955.1%27 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked FURIA63c612.7$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.714544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.