TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Over51c27,567$14,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,508.5819754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over50c15,816$7,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,908.0687451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c10,906$5,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,343.991,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9008839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under49c8,717$4,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.31,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c5,255$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Under47c3,506$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.4717744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under50c2,979$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.284,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under32c2,733$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.651,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over60c2,424$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.172,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec7…db02backed Under47c2,406$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.611735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c2,352$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.421,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Over53c2,318$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.4616346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c2,001$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.841,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over53c1,899$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.7190650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Under52c1,460$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.2220846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over51c950.93$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.1871654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over51c861.56$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.171,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over51c861.56$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.171,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c861.5$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.742,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Under49c782.77$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.416642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2913…d241backed Over51c734$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.346550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under38c721.97$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9426638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over65c674.07$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under49c500.42$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5993543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over51c475.78$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1356447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over63c465.84$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.525150.6%127 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Under48c443.71$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9816845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c405.02$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.314,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20081349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under12c389.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5252230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Under50c339.5$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7510940.4%44 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc43c…1310backed Under46c330$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under46c299.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9915543.9%68 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0988…f6f9backed Over56c292.08$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Over70c279.45$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.022568%17 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Under48c278.05$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4616249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under33c253.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6957550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c250.5$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.755,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Over64c237.57$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.987751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under49c230.09$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4960945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Over52c225.48$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9623446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…9a30backed Over67c220.74$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.847544%33 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over51c207.84$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8491846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under50c201.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7855347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Under47c199.93$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9728852.1%150 W · 138 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under47c198$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over53c195.72$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.051,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Under48c195.7$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9322351.6%115 W · 108 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over54c192.13$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0919550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2551647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Over59c188.23$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0715252.6%80 W · 72 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354f…95f8backed Over54c180.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.228763.2%55 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59ce…6f07backed Under50c177.84$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9221347.9%102 W · 111 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under50c170.6$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.364844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Under48c167.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4118744.4%83 W · 104 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over58c159.35$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5434953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under46c150.15$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.071,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0703…f805backed Over53c146.69$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.94742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Under48c140.48$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4320040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over60c135.88$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.514852.7%78 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under49c131.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.512,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over49c127.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under50c120.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2380653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdade…8e37backed Over50c115.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.755939%23 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x549d…35b9backed Over51c114.37$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1411354.9%62 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under48c113.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4154443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe964…6519backed Under47c105.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4713052.3%68 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Under22c101.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.148937.1%33 W · 56 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under49c100.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.436153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under47c99.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9933949.9%169 W · 170 L-1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Under50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.510745.8%49 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.553453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Over51c95.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under44c93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.941,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over55c91.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9653348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over53c90.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7260346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under50c82.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0491746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Under39c79.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9410718.7%20 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c75.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf433…2464backed Under53c73.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8714444.4%64 W · 80 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee87…28edbacked Over54c72.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.134353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Over69c71.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0510850%54 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Over54c67.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8626745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50aa…e9adbacked Over51c66.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under27c58.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f2…fdb4backed Over50c58.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111558.3%67 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x185d…5e67backed Over50c54.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.261361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under44c54.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.737753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over52c52.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1557051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97f…9337backed Over51c47.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6918453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Under49c44.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8527050%135 W · 135 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Over49c44.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.517637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Over67c42.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8315663.5%99 W · 57 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6859…f7c2backed Over60c40.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.272050%10 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5ed…96e1backed Under48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.385251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4c…ebeabacked Over53c37.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.811650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c2…54adbacked Over53c36.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.