TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Germany (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Côte d'Ivoireof Germany, Côte d'Ivoire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,043 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce82…03d3backed Germany5c1,600$72 inLost-$72.457321.9%16 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Germany5c1,506$78 inLost-$77.651,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…cfdabacked Germany4c967$39 inLost-$38.687911.4%9 W · 70 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Germany5c809.86$44 inLost-$43.861,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Germany5c750$41 inLost-$40.511642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Germany4c716$27 inLost-$27.2177845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Germany5c678.17$36 inLost-$36.311,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0eb…f43cbacked Germany8c638.02$50 inLost-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Germany4c564.92$22 inLost-$21.9513545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Germany6c500.2$30 inLost-$306918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Germany4c500$20 inLost-$19.515225.7%39 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Germany7c435.08$30 inLost-$3026716.1%43 W · 224 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Germany4c340.8$13 inLost-$12.6145038.2%172 W · 278 L-28.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Germany4c300$13 inLost-$13.381,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Germany4c294.44$13 inLost-$12.7615846.2%73 W · 85 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5a…7032backed Germany7c249.99$17 inLost-$16.962832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-44.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7393…751abacked Germany5c200$10 inLost-$102003%6 W · 194 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.