TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$551,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$523,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $551,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes3c56,207$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.815337.7%20 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c49,551$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes2c30,454$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.97333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c20,235$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.6339435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes2c13,610$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.782147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+27.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0240…834ebacked Yes4c11,620$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes2c11,316$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6438239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd900…456fbacked Yes2c9,776$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes1c6,444$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.829618.8%18 W · 78 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…c686backed Yes4c5,477$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes4c5,200$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8695641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac0…3a6cbacked Yes1c4,985$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c4,928$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4360834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb5…11babacked Yes4c4,660$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes4c4,462$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,425$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.491,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes3c4,176$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5720536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x902c…db6cbacked Yes1c3,908$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes5c3,156$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2818452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,880$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes2c2,500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.520050.5%101 W · 99 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b79…734cbacked Yes2c2,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009939.4%39 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa599…c7c4backed Yes2c1,731$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9758…9d20backed Yes3c1,725$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8530…fe49backed Yes3c1,681$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd022…1856backed Yes3c1,657$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.131533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7bd…9fbabacked Yes3c1,603$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6784…0e40backed Yes3c1,586$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe655…4c57backed Yes3c1,577$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes2c1,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes4c1,331$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.242722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes1c1,291$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026934.9%94 W · 175 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes2c1,277$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c1,167$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51140%0 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes1c1,162$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44200%0 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c1,113$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.07230%0 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,105$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.115010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed Yes2c849.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf998…1f41backed Yes3c816.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c812.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30c9…1e3bbacked Yes3c800$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c790.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.02263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…75c7backed Yes6c776.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae0…9f81backed Yes4c759.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+711.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes2c631.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66240%0 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e93…0078backed Yes2c518.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.263324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes6c498.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.329516.8%16 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed Yes3c438$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x293b…5d33backed Yes3c388.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…3269backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144254.8%23 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c42…bfaebacked Yes6c189.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5910842.6%46 W · 62 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.