NBA · resolved market
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e3973197f60e1614567ce57a3e6f8a4805d21f471d67b67a5ed5ecca1b8004b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $551,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $523,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $551,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d64…738ebacked Yes | 3c | 56,207$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.81 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 49,551$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…30e7backed Yes | 2c | 30,454$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.97 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 20,235$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.63 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,610$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…834ebacked Yes | 4c | 11,620$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 11,316$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 382 | 39.5%151 W · 231 L | +35.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd900…456fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,776$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 1c | 6,444$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…c686backed Yes | 4c | 5,477$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 5,200$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…3a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,985$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,928$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb5…11babacked Yes | 4c | 4,660$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 4c | 4,462$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,425$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,176$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,908$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,156$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.28 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,880$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 200 | 50.5%101 W · 99 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b79…734cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…c7c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,731$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…9d20backed Yes | 3c | 1,725$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…fe49backed Yes | 3c | 1,681$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…1856backed Yes | 3c | 1,657$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…9fbabacked Yes | 3c | 1,603$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…0e40backed Yes | 3c | 1,586$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe655…4c57backed Yes | 3c | 1,577$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 4c | 1,331$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,291$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 34.9%94 W · 175 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,277$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,162$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 1,105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 2c | 849.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…1f41backed Yes | 3c | 816.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 812.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…1e3bbacked Yes | 3c | 800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 790.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…75c7backed Yes | 6c | 776.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…9f81backed Yes | 4c | 759.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +711.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 2c | 631.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…0078backed Yes | 2c | 518.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 6c | 498.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 3c | 438$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…5d33backed Yes | 3c | 388.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3269backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…bfaebacked Yes | 6c | 189.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?this page
- Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Indiana Pacers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Yes won
- Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Washington Wizards win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.