Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4874524b82ca34f211d1b1b805474e07cbf43cba186489a3dbc7f5ef805bd1b

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Uruguayof Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $522,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $531,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,804 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x361b…74febacked Saudi Arabia	24c	115,703$27,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27,883.97	510	32.5%166 W · 344 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Saudi Arabia	6c	97,940$6,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,316.58	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3b…dcdabacked Saudi Arabia	13c	8,082$1,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.95	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Saudi Arabia	3c	8,080$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	213	33.3%71 W · 142 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Saudi Arabia	3c	7,278$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.67	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Saudi Arabia	3c	6,450$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.38	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Saudi Arabia	12c	5,547$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.16	470	32.8%154 W · 316 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Saudi Arabia	3c	5,510$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.81	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Uruguay	70c	4,460$3,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,338.62	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Saudi Arabia	3c	4,231$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.94	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Saudi Arabia	9c	2,901$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.68	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Saudi Arabia	3c	2,311$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.58	144	28.5%41 W · 103 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Saudi Arabia	3c	2,112$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.52	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Saudi Arabia	5c	2,004$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.79	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x036b…ead4backed Saudi Arabia	3c	1,950$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Saudi Arabia	11c	1,869$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.6	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b7…239fbacked Saudi Arabia	3c	1,845$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac8…8fc4backed Saudi Arabia	3c	1,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Saudi Arabia	12c	1,549$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.17	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Saudi Arabia	3c	1,300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…1398backed Saudi Arabia	8c	1,253$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Saudi Arabia	3c	1,209$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	70	37.1%26 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Saudi Arabia	11c	1,129$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.86	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Saudi Arabia	3c	1,129$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.71	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb2…f51fbacked Saudi Arabia	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+6.0wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb379…2ed2backed Saudi Arabia	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	108	34.3%37 W · 71 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d3…3078backed Saudi Arabia	12c	971.42$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.86	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Saudi Arabia	13c	919$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.33	580	49.1%285 W · 295 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…dd47backed Saudi Arabia	3c	900$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Saudi Arabia	6c	893.15$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	460	12.4%57 W · 403 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Saudi Arabia	3c	862.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	231	24.7%57 W · 174 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Saudi Arabia	5c	827.39$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.1	233	63.5%148 W · 85 L	+19.8wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Uruguay	75c	824.4$615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.99	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Saudi Arabia	3c	601.72$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	136	38.2%52 W · 84 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Saudi Arabia	3c	510.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.03	181	18.2%33 W · 148 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7578…6426backed Saudi Arabia	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f2…0193backed Saudi Arabia	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x425b…dbfdbacked Saudi Arabia	3c	466.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	68	36.8%25 W · 43 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Saudi Arabia	7c	459.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	432	30.1%130 W · 302 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Saudi Arabia	3c	421.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	192	57.8%111 W · 81 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Saudi Arabia	14c	397.45$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.69	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x579a…b0a7backed Saudi Arabia	4c	389.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	756	30.4%230 W · 526 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Saudi Arabia	4c	368$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a6…08bfbacked Saudi Arabia	4c	350.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Saudi Arabia	4c	350$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	189	26.5%50 W · 139 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Saudi Arabia	13c	338$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	108	36.1%39 W · 69 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1486…cef3backed Saudi Arabia	13c	323.84$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.1	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe71a…cdc1backed Saudi Arabia	9c	312.96$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	128	28.9%37 W · 91 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1eae…7b8dbacked Saudi Arabia	9c	309.49$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Saudi Arabia	7c	302.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Saudi Arabia	4c	295.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7b…bfeebacked Saudi Arabia	12c	245$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.34	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…1928backed Saudi Arabia	8c	225$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+52.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Saudi Arabia	8c	216.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Saudi Arabia	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe10c…e7e2backed Saudi Arabia	11c	199.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db6…51acbacked Saudi Arabia	12c	198.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Saudi Arabia	7c	197.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	984	39.2%386 W · 598 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca1…ee3fbacked Saudi Arabia	12c	183.08$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	138	33.3%46 W · 92 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Saudi Arabia	9c	178.18$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Saudi Arabia	16c	169$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8f…9166backed Saudi Arabia	13c	155.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	42%29 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de2…cd3fbacked Saudi Arabia	8c	131$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	207	33.3%69 W · 138 L	-11.6wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed85…be20backed Saudi Arabia	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	33%29 W · 59 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f48…0e01backed Saudi Arabia	12c	107.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	151	30.5%46 W · 105 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d7…a2fdbacked Saudi Arabia	10c	106.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.22per pick	37cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Uruguay	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.1	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f17…b55dbacked Saudi Arabia	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	121	45.5%55 W · 66 L	+9.0wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49d9…d6c1backed Saudi Arabia	12c	90$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	345	44.1%152 W · 193 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)this page
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5Over won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5Over won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5Over won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5Over won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5Under won
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)Uruguay won
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)Saudi Arabia won
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)Saudi Arabia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event