Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5858a6bf85fcaff96b6f4cd6230433777ac1cfb26f8678f9a2b52ef11b456c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 3c | 46,736$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.59 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 5c | 21,891$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.25 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 2c | 16,412$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.97 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 4c | 10,776$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.58 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 3c | 4,734$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…b29fbacked Over | 2c | 4,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Over | 1c | 4,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…8089backed Over | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 4c | 3,125$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,044 | 43.7%456 W · 588 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 5c | 2,629$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 2c | 2,487$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 3c | 2,332$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…2763backed Over | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 26.3%49 W · 137 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 2c | 1,617$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 285 | 26.3%75 W · 210 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 229 | 19.2%44 W · 185 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Over | 4c | 950$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 6c | 777.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 1c | 755$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 26.2%54 W · 152 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…d024backed Over | 5c | 483$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 774 | 33.1%256 W · 518 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…a002backed Over | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…f6dabacked Over | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 33.1%45 W · 91 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…920fbacked Over | 5c | 369.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Over | 4c | 369.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 6c | 335.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 22.9%22 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…5460backed Over | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1556…b722backed Over | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 296 | 39.5%117 W · 179 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f4…84d3backed Over | 5c | 318$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Over | 4c | 309.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Over | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…fddebacked Over | 5c | 285.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 4c | 263.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fa…caa4backed Over | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…6f3ebacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…0e06backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 399 | 32.6%130 W · 269 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…eea7backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6487…e903backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5this page
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Japan won
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Japan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.