TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,258 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd202…8973backed Under55c3,337$1,845 inLost-$1,845.339345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Under28c3,017$845 inLost-$844.861681.3%13 W · 3 L+6.1wins+0.38per pick43cpaid+268.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over72c3,000$2,160 inWon+$839.991,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2300…53f8backed Over44c675.56$300 inWon+$375.568746%40 W · 47 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dd5…28f2backed Over44c499.49$220 inWon+$279.719552.6%50 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over44c459$202 inWon+$257.042,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Under55c323.25$178 inLost-$177.7985851.2%439 W · 419 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under55c227$125 inLost-$124.853,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Over44c224.14$99 inWon+$125.5212853.9%69 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under56c200.22$112 inLost-$112.1213445.5%61 W · 73 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Under56c194.92$109 inLost-$109.1626537.7%100 W · 165 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf410…34d5backed Under56c135.75$76 inLost-$76.023946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over44c94.84$42 inWon+$53.118,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Under55c53.99$30 inLost-$29.6943145.2%195 W · 236 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Under56c53.57$30 inLost-$308572.9%62 W · 23 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefe7…0cdfbacked Over44c34.09$15 inWon+$19.0910037%37 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Over45c29.59$13 inWon+$16.2711826.3%31 W · 87 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Over55c24.72$14 inWon+$11.172,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Under57c23$13 inLost-$13.1121251.9%110 W · 102 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.