Spread: Japan (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3af83732f124ad4d46876c501fee839ac5db78132848832b16ff2e10e96c8d3

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netherlandsof Japan, Netherlands
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $162,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $162,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2117…5c26backed Japan	10c	14,762$1,476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,476.2	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Japan	9c	12,000$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	296	46.3%137 W · 159 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Japan	10c	7,721$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.09	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Japan	7c	6,116$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Japan	8c	4,884$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.76	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaecf…7061backed Japan	10c	4,848$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.84	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-85%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Japan	10c	4,249$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.94	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Japan	10c	4,182$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.76	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17c…d2eabacked Japan	4c	3,833$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	17cpaid	-84.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Japan	6c	3,079$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.74	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcc32…92d2backed Japan	9c	3,023$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.07	103	55.3%57 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Japan	6c	2,825$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.42	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c1…caf8backed Japan	10c	2,340$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Japan	9c	2,187$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.83	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x210d…a85cbacked Japan	12c	2,011$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Japan	4c	1,960$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.39	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Japan	10c	1,560$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.22	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa614…0bafbacked Japan	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Japan	7c	1,388$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.96	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Japan	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	123	32.5%40 W · 83 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bba…d7b8backed Japan	10c	1,001$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Japan	9c	999.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	35.8%88 W · 158 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Japan	10c	940$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	144	28.5%41 W · 103 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a4…a11dbacked Japan	10c	888$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.8	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…bfd5backed Japan	10c	880$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	173	9.2%16 W · 157 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Japan	10c	700$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ca…219bbacked Japan	10c	618.3$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.83	52	19.2%10 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-31%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Japan	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	229	14%32 W · 197 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c8…c328backed Japan	2c	599.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Japan	10c	584.7$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.47	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Japan	6c	516.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	146	20.5%30 W · 116 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Japan	6c	516.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-4.8wins	-0.13per pick	36cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ab…8432backed Japan	10c	510.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Japan	10c	502.13$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.72	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Japan	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	151	50.3%76 W · 75 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Japan	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	414	29%120 W · 294 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Japan	10c	440$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11b7…cd95backed Japan	12c	423.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Japan	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	96	22.9%22 W · 74 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Japan	8c	321.25$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed Japan	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	203	25.6%52 W · 151 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8edd…74d2backed Japan	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	35.2%31 W · 57 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Japan	7c	268.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc66d…6f62backed Japan	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5f…480abacked Japan	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	120	28.3%34 W · 86 L	-10.0wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bd7…047abacked Japan	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf72…f7cebacked Japan	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3a…269fbacked Japan	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Japan	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	150	34.7%52 W · 98 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Japan	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Japan	10c	156$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf180…3b6cbacked Japan	10c	153.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde70…615fbacked Japan	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9bc…73d5backed Japan	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38ca…1d02backed Japan	10c	130$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Japan	9c	120.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8621…46dabacked Japan	10c	116$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca2…c0c8backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68eb…8c18backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e3…97e0backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4df…e515backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50b…1fd9backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf62a…8457backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a50…6c6bbacked Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-7.1wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa855…3a4ebacked Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…21fdbacked Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Japan	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa6…e929backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	135	37.8%51 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2134…231cbacked Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…4817backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	258	41.1%106 W · 152 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7c…6f90backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	9cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x280e…b409backed Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	128	18%23 W · 105 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22cf…a9debacked Japan	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Japan (-1.5)this page
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
Spread: Japan (-2.5)Netherlands won
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Japan won
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Japan won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Japan (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event