Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6d0546a1d8093f0939ff603a08df7dc64c5e3f8883248b2b7a6598ce5a8465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Japanof Netherlands, Japan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Netherlands | 6c | 25,629$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.29 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Netherlands | 8c | 9,659$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.03 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Netherlands | 6c | 9,042$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.23 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Netherlands | 10c | 5,522$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.59 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Netherlands | 9c | 5,295$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.29 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Netherlands | 9c | 5,033$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.51 | 249 | 17.7%44 W · 205 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd82…7e3cbacked Netherlands | 9c | 4,928$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…f90dbacked Netherlands | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Netherlands | 3c | 2,833$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Netherlands | 10c | 2,505$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.23 | 285 | 26.3%75 W · 210 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Netherlands | 5c | 2,273$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0693…9679backed Netherlands | 8c | 1,417$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 226 | 33.6%76 W · 150 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Netherlands | 7c | 1,142$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…d8b5backed Netherlands | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 34%50 W · 97 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…afbbbacked Netherlands | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Netherlands | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…e49abacked Netherlands | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Netherlands | 8c | 1,059$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Netherlands | 8c | 931.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 360 | 31.7%114 W · 246 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…83e6backed Netherlands | 6c | 852.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed Netherlands | 6c | 846.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 36.4%67 W · 117 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Netherlands | 8c | 826.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 258 | 48.4%125 W · 133 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…19ccbacked Netherlands | 6c | 682.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 668 | 46.7%312 W · 356 L | +45.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Netherlands | 6c | 675.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Netherlands | 8c | 660.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Netherlands | 9c | 562$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 658 | 35%230 W · 428 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Netherlands | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…2d3cbacked Netherlands | 10c | 520$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 262 | 16%42 W · 220 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Netherlands | 7c | 497.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 432 | 30.1%130 W · 302 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Netherlands | 6c | 369.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…3e0abacked Netherlands | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 16.1%43 W · 224 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc055…eb58backed Netherlands | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…1b00backed Netherlands | 9c | 218$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa711…738ebacked Netherlands | 9c | 211.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe330…df1bbacked Netherlands | 5c | 203.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Netherlands | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Netherlands | 6c | 184.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…e2b0backed Netherlands | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 459 | 32.5%149 W · 310 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…d048backed Netherlands | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e8…f050backed Netherlands | 10c | 120.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Netherlands | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Netherlands | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Netherlands | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Netherlands | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 329 | 28%92 W · 237 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Netherlands | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)this page
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Japan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.