TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1a80…6b2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: F1, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 52 out of 100; worst Lol at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$58.24
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.75
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.4
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.05
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$68.07
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 12 picks, newest first.
F1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$252
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+389.6%+$308.53
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.45
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+101.2%+$80.96
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+400%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$153
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+900%+$180
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$144.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.