TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x635f…92f3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: CS2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 57 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT4557.8%26 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$15.21
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+96.9%+$36.81
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.45
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$16.91
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$9.19
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.05
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$11
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winnerbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$14.33
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+336%+$87.37
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$10.62
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)backed GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+657.1%+$155.6
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.15
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group Abacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$53.08
Will Team Vitality win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+153.6%+$49.17
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Bbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.