https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x6ca8913fc2d38c22bccd681b5cbadc14ea3b0a82
The Watchlist is not built yet, so that button does nothing on purpose.
Rebuilt .
Tailer profilescored on resolved markets · held to resolution
Where its weight is
MLB
14 of its 28 qualified picks
Below the line at -0.01 per pick — 50 means no edge at all.
See the full MLB boardIts best Category
Fed Rates
its best of 8 Categories scored
Below the line at 0.00 per pick — 50 means no edge at all.
See the full Fed Rates board8 below 50 · 0 at or above · 8 Categories scored
- Qualified picks
- 28
- Categories scored
- 8
- Categories below 50
- 8
Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.
Best Category Fed Rates at 50 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.
Record by Category8 Categories
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
What this wallet holds right now
TailMyPicks does not watch what 0x6ca8…0a82 is holding. Live positions are read for the strongest fifty wallets in each category, and this one is not among them — so this is we have not looked, not there is nothing there. Its record above is unaffected: that is rebuilt from resolved markets and does not depend on this. You can see what the wallets we do watch are buying on the tail feed.
These figures and the record above never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.