TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,545 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers15c1,646$244 inWon+$1,402.321,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Cavaliers3c1,527$42 inWon+$1,485.211,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe6…fcc9backed Cavaliers27c729$194 inWon+$535.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed Pistons78c620$484 inLost-$483.64269%29 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers19c618.35$115 inWon+$503.731,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Cavaliers21c500$105 inWon+$39518643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons79c320.79$252 inLost-$252.48,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Cavaliers25c314.42$80 inWon+$234.4222844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Cavaliers18c284.89$50 inWon+$234.895332.1%17 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers19c278.75$53 inWon+$225.791,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pistons72c214$154 inLost-$154.0868838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cavaliers33c207.49$68 inWon+$139.0264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Pistons79c168.56$133 inLost-$133.1652150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Cavaliers19c128.04$24 inWon+$103.7627549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cavaliers21c119.05$25 inWon+$94.0536248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Cavaliers18c92.1$17 inWon+$75.5214150.4%71 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers34c87.62$30 inWon+$57.6240548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Pistons77c40.06$31 inLost-$30.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Cavaliers50c35.04$18 inWon+$17.5221046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Pistons77c13.51$10 inLost-$10.425554.5%139 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.