TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 103.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,914 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0dc…586cbacked Over51c1,294$655 inWon+$63928838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under55c1,258$691 inLost-$691.232957.4%189 W · 140 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over47c1,198$565 inWon+$632.8250346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c1,063$532 inLost-$532.472,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7c…6244backed Over40c999.99$400 inWon+$6003444.1%15 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under52c788.01$411 inLost-$410.834,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Over51c647.06$330 inWon+$317.0619741.6%82 W · 115 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under60c644.12$386 inLost-$386.473,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfc…4516backed Over48c627.9$300 inWon+$327.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked Over50c502$251 inWon+$25125850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c466.46$229 inLost-$228.572,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Under60c307$184 inLost-$184.220558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over48c289.12$140 inWon+$149.126246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over51c254$129 inWon+$125.537848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7cd…7db3backed Over53c182$96 inWon+$85.548354.2%45 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c158.33$82 inLost-$82.3364651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3824backed Over48c156.25$75 inWon+$81.2515149.7%75 W · 76 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under51c130.82$67 inLost-$66.728354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e3a…7bdcbacked Under51c128.66$66 inLost-$65.514658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Under49c117.65$58 inLost-$57.6514148.2%68 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over51c117.65$60 inWon+$57.6536453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over74c102.86$76 inWon+$27.276653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Over49c102.04$50 inWon+$52.0422844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Over49c102.04$50 inWon+$52.0414357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under49c100$49 inLost-$4995548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd96c…9db0backed Under23c100$23 inLost-$22.9270%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under47c100$47 inLost-$471,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa139…f574backed Under50c99.61$50 inLost-$503847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Under50c60$30 inLost-$303548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe377…dc67backed Under55c52.27$29 inLost-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over48c52.08$25 inWon+$27.083855.3%21 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over50c50$25 inWon+$2518150.3%91 W · 90 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3854…862dbacked Over51c38.85$20 inWon+$18.856055%33 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under51c36.11$18 inLost-$18.4240546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under55c35.71$20 inLost-$19.6415753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3368…2079backed Under49c30$15 inLost-$14.72326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.