TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

James Harden: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,644 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc61d…3933backed Yes51c704.23$359 inWon+$345.0717047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No49c611.89$300 inLost-$299.771,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed No46c299.98$138 inLost-$137.996132.8%20 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb56…2492backed Yes54c200$108 inWon+$922365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+58.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8dd…5672backed Yes56c107.87$60 inWon+$47.872951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes49c79.94$39 inWon+$40.7756050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No43c58.43$25 inLost-$25.122,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed No48c54.84$26 inLost-$26.329239.1%36 W · 56 L-10.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked No49c51.1$25 inLost-$25.0417547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0366…a001backed No51c49.99$25 inLost-$25.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes49c41.06$20 inWon+$20.9444747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No49c39.99$20 inLost-$19.5943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4f…2510backed No51c33.2$17 inLost-$16.933852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed Yes76c32.44$25 inWon+$7.794393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes52c25.48$13 inWon+$12.2314357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No49c24.21$12 inLost-$11.8626755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aff…9903backed No51c22.37$11 inLost-$11.41650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeed7…ef6dbacked Yes54c21.65$12 inWon+$9.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes51c21.57$11 inWon+$10.5734556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98bd…781ebacked No49c20.9$10 inLost-$10.244254.8%23 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.